The magic word recently is STRIKE! Not just one, but two. As has been widely reported, 33,000 Boeing factory workers in the Puget Sound area (as well as some in Portland) went on strike on the 12th of September shutting down production of the 737, 767 and 777 models. Then, on September 23rd, 5,000 Textron workers in Wichita, affecting the Cessna and Beechcraft lines of aircraft. As of the end of the month, neither of the strikes had been resolved.
While there has been plenty in the Commercial Aviation space to talk about (see below), we want to start the missive with our latest feature, our Commercial Aircraft Fleet Development Forecast. Astute readers may already have seen glimpses of these in our annually updated commercial aircraft reports that have been issued since June, and which we will add to the rest of the reports as they come up for updating over the course of the next 11 months.
The current war in Ukraine involves the most extensive use of drones to date, and the first widespread use of loitering munitions. The most widespread of these is the use of small, cheap FPV (First Person View) drones. FPV drones are an adaptation of commercial drones used for the sport of drone racing. They use a simplified optical sensor that has little or no traverse, keeping the price to a minimum. The FPVs have become so common that the Ukrainians have been using them to attack individual Russian soldiers as well as more substantial targets such as tanks.
UAV SAR funding more than quadrupled over the decade from 2005-2015. Before that, the only major program was RDT&E funding for the large MP-RTIP (Multi-Platform Radar Technology Insertion Program) radar for the Block 40 Global Hawk. Then, not only did US Air Force MP-RTIP production end prematurely with a truncated eleven-radar procurement, but the Air Force planned to “divest” the entire Block 40 Global Hawk fleet. Most thought this was as unlikely to happen as the USAF threat to mothball the Block 30 fleet.
After more than a year without deliveries as Lockheed Martin worked to get the Block 4 software to a final release standard, the JPO relented on its position that they would only accept completed jets. Beginning in July 2024, Lockheed can now go to DD 215 sign-off with F-35s that have Technical Refresh 3 but not a final version of the software. According to LM Aeronautics CEO Greg Ulmer, Lockheed has already begun to ship US aircraft with version 351 Block 4 software and will follow with updated versions of international “353” software in late August.
Both Russia and Ukraine have been making extensive use of loitering munitions during the current war. Russia has made extensive use of FPV (First Person View) loitering munitions since 2023. These are generally based on small, cheap commercial racing drones fitted with a small warhead. Russia began using FPV kamikaze drones in small numbers in July 2022. Use of these drones ramped up in response to Ukrainian attacks with 125 sorties in July 2023, 247 in August, 553 in September, 474 in October and 625 in November 2023.
Signals Intelligence (SIGINT) has become not only a primary focus of electronic warfare (EW) over the past decade or two, but it now garners genuine “A-list” funding for UAVs as well as manned airborne platforms. SIGINT had a relatively low profile among manned EW programs in the Cold War, while jammers and radar and missile warning systems received most of the attention and funding. But that changed with the conflicts in Afghanistan and Iraq, and the threat continues today from non-state actors worldwide – new geographies of conflict resulted in changing needs.
Electro-Optical/Infrared (EO/IR) sensors are still the default sensor for most UAVs (Unmanned Aerial Vehicles). UAV EO/IR system funding increased rapidly in the decade after 9/11 (2001). But the financial crisis of 2008, proposed budget cuts, and sequestration resulted in several years of up-and-down funding, and considerable uncertainty. A decade later, a comprehensive new generation of EO/IR sensors was funded in DoD budgets and by 2020 production of these new sensors was well underway. Though unheralded in the media (upgrades rarely grab headlines), the bulk of the US endurance UAV fleet has now recently received all-new sensors, worth billions of dollars to both prime contractors and subs.
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