In March 2019 in the US Navy’s FY20 budget, the MH-60R Seahawk Multi-Mission Maritime Helicopter was stated to be the primary ASW (Anti-Submarine Warfare) sensor in the Carrier Strike Group. But despite its crucial importance, production for the US Navy will be ending soon, and some electronics suppliers face an uncertain future. There may soon be no companies left outside the “Big Three” of Raytheon, Northrop, and Lockheed to maintain a competitive military radar market.
GE Aviation is the star performer within General Electric, but it is hobbled by its connection to a troubled company. The company is unable to make acquisitions being made by other major aircraft suppliers. United Technologies' recently completed purchase of Rockwell Collins made it the world's largest aerospace equipment supplier.
The decision to surrender control of the CSeries to Airbus represents the final stage of a 12-year long slow-motion story that’s best described as a noble and heroic farce. Bombardier, Canada, and Quebec bit off way more than they could chew. Poor management and decision-making compounded this reality. Once Airbus and Boeing re-engined and upgraded their single-aisle models (as a reaction), the CSeries didn’t stand much of a chance. Since the CSeries began in 2006 and through the decision to surrender, Airbus and Boeing racked up 17,264 single aisle jetliner orders (8,104 Boeing, 9,160 Airbus). The CSeries got 360.
The Uninhabited Combat Air Vehicle (UCAV) is the most futuristic application for UAVs, and has seen considerable turmoil over the past decade, while the services thrashed out what they expected from the program. DARPA headed the original program, followed by a DoD consolidation, only to see DoD again break up the program with the Navy pursuing the carrier-based J-UCAS and the Air Force effort disappearing "into the black".
The Navy program seems to have ended in 2016 with the shift from the UCLASS strike/ISR to the CBARS aerial refueling system. However, it is also possible that the Navy has shifted its stealth/strike UAS "into the black”.
Teal Group Corporation's overall, cumulative military electronics Manufacturer Market Shares Forecast for the next ten years (FY18-FY27) shows 33.1% of the total market will be available for new primes (worth a whopping $161.0 billion), when considering that continuing production for most current programs is locked up by the incumbent. Note that a much higher share than this 33.1% will be available for subcontractors.
Teal Group’s Military Electronics Briefing Market Overview forecasts the military electronics market available to U.S. manufacturers will rise steadily with a 4.4% CAGR over the next five years (FY18-FY23), while new-platform procurements will continue to decline over the next decade. Teal Group forecasts a $486.1 billion total military electronics market from FY18-FY27.
This month we focus on the US Army’s AN/MLQ-40(V) Prophet program, born out of the US Army’s failed Intelligence and Electronic Warfare Common Sensor (IEWCS). Prophet has existed since 1998 and is still the primary US Army integrated all-frequency signals intercept/emitter location/countermeasures system which searches, intercepts, locates, identifies, and applies countermeasures to enemy fire control and command and control (C2) emitters. Taking over from IEWCS, Prophet became the major Army ground forces EW program (aside from counter-IED systems), replacing a rag-tag collection of non-interoperable systems which had previously made up the Army’s signals intelligence (SIGINT) and electronic warfare capability.
Teal Group recently updated its outlook for ground-based air defense radar programs, including BMDS systems, as well as a few airborne ISR systems. The financial value of these programs is great – with several multi-billion programs (and much still uncontracted).
One of the largest future programs, despite being a legacy system, is Raytheon’s radars for the Patriot air defense missile system. Teal Group forecasts Patriot radar and C4I funding of between $900 million and $1.2 billion annually throughout our forecast period.