Lockheed Martin is the world’s largest defense contractor. With a strong presence across multiple key aerospace segments, the company is well positioned to compete for critical US and international opportunities. Its expertise in systems integration, space and aircraft also gives it considerable potential to bring together the systems capabilities to which major US prime contractors now aspire. In addition, Lockheed Martin has a long lived and a strong reputation for technological expertise.
AeroVironment may be classified as a small defense company, but it is a giant in mini-UAS. The company repeatedly beats larger companies in small UAV competitions. Those victories make it the company to beat in competitions for U.S. military small UAS. The company reported $717 million in revenue for fiscal 2024 (ending April 30, 2024). This represented year-over-year growth of 33%, reflecting recent acquisitions and strong organic growth. Since 2017 revenue has grown at a 17.4% compound annual growth rate.
With nine months of deliveries on the books, Airbus’s 2024 delivery target of 770 is looking a little shaky. In the first nine months of 2023, Airbus delivered 488 aircraft, and their total-year deliveries were 735. So far in 2024, Airbus has delivered 497 aircraft, nine more than last year’s nine-month total. Assuming the same torrid delivery pace in the final quarter of 2024 as was experienced in 2023, that suggests that Airbus is actually on track to deliver just 747 aircraft this year.
After more than a year without deliveries as Lockheed Martin worked to get the Block 4 software to a final release standard, the JPO relented on its position that they would only accept completed jets. Beginning in July 2024, Lockheed can now go to DD 215 sign-off with F-35s that have Technical Refresh 3 but not a final version of the software. According to LM Aeronautics CEO Greg Ulmer, Lockheed has already begun to ship US aircraft with version 351 Block 4 software and will follow with updated versions of international “353” software in late August.
In terms of worldwide military budgets, the unmanned aircraft systems (UAS) segment continues to see growth, although annual growth has moderated when compared to a decade ago. The unclassified sector will continue to increase over the next decade, by about 91.9%, almost doubling, from current annual spending on RDT&E and procurement of about $14.9 billion in FY25 to about $28.6 billion in FY34 (a CAGR of 7.5%). If operations and maintenance expenditures were to be added, these totals would be greater.
In November 2024, Russia fired a high-altitude 1,000+ km range “ICBM” (Inter-Continental Ballistic Missile) at Ukraine’s Yuzhmash engineering development and manufacturing facility in Dnipro – ironically, a legacy facility itself involved in the development and production of nuclear missiles for the USSR during Soviet times (Yuzhmash is now named PA Pivdenmash). This was the world’s first ever combat use of an armed “ICBM.” The new missile, referred to as the Oreshnik by Vladimir Putin, has been classified by the US DoD as an IRBM (Intermediate Range Ballistic Missile) developed out of the Russian RS-26 Rubezh ICBM.
The magic word recently is STRIKE! Not just one, but two. As has been widely reported, 33,000 Boeing factory workers in the Puget Sound area (as well as some in Portland) went on strike on the 12th of September shutting down production of the 737, 767 and 777 models. Then, on September 23rd, 5,000 Textron workers in Wichita, affecting the Cessna and Beechcraft lines of aircraft. As of the end of the month, neither of the strikes had been resolved.
While there has been plenty in the Commercial Aviation space to talk about (see below), we want to start the missive with our latest feature, our Commercial Aircraft Fleet Development Forecast. Astute readers may already have seen glimpses of these in our annually updated commercial aircraft reports that have been issued since June, and which we will add to the rest of the reports as they come up for updating over the course of the next 11 months.
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