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Teal Group gathers, classifies, and analyzes information from a wide range of sources. Our analysts publish News Briefs several times a year. Subscribe via email to receive each News Brief when it is published

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  • Bruce McClelland

    Bruce McClelland

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  • Dr. David L. Rockwell

    Dr. David L. Rockwell

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  • J.J. Gertler

    J.J. Gertler

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  • Joel Johnson

    Joel Johnson

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  • Marco A. Cáceres

    Marco A. Cáceres

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  • Steven J. Zaloga

    Steven J. Zaloga

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  • Thomas J. Zoretich

    Thomas J. Zoretich

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  • William C. Storey, Jr.

    William C. Storey, Jr.

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News Briefs

10 October 2023

Recent developments in civil aircraft market: will they effect industry forecasts?

Author: Bruce McClelland, Drawn From: World Military & Civil Aircraft Briefing

Events shaping the future of the global civil aircraft market continue to unfold. Teal Group has identified a list of newsworthy developments over the last couple of months that could shape short- and long-term demand for civil aircraft and we explain why they are important, or not.

Airbus A350 is facing criticism about the A350 weakness vis-à-vis the 787: We’ve expected the A350-900 to continue to trail the 787 (all variants), but we don’t see that as existential. We expect the A330neo will take up some of the slack. The -1000 is probably in a weaker position relative to the 777X although commonality with a family of aircraft will provide some lift.

18 August 2023

F-35: Cruising at A Higher Altitude

Author: J.J. Gertler, Drawn From: World Military & Civil Aircraft Briefing

Lockheed Martin’s F-35 is the biggest single market driver, with the long-awaited production ramp finally seeing results. Last year saw deliveries jump to 142 aircraft. We expected growth to continue through the decade, but Lockheed Martin mysteriously announced in 2021 that output would be capped at 156 per year, which is less than what the market seems to want. The company had previously said that the line can reach 180 deliveries with planned facilities. We anticipated that the 156 cap was imposed by the government as a negotiating lever and would not long endure beyond agreement on production lots 15-17. But recent Department of Defense documentation seems to indicate that the production cap will remain constant through 2030, even as the limiting factor – subcontractor throughput – is being alleviated. Even so, the F-35 will continue to be the dominant force in the fighter market through the forecast period.

09 May 2023

Next Round of US NSSL Space Launch Contracts

Author: Marco A. Cáceres, Drawn From: World Space Systems Briefing , Worldwide Mission Model

The next round of US military launch contracts under the National Security Space Launch (NSSL) Phase 3 program will be awarded next year. The NSSL Phase 2 contract in 2020 went to United Launch Alliance (ULA) and SpaceX for their Vulcan and Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy launch vehicles. Phase 3 contracts (for up to 40 missions) will probably also be awarded to ULA and SpaceX for these same rockets, although there are some lawmakers in Congress who would prefer there to be more launch service providers competing for medium and heavy US military payloads.

03 April 2023

Airborne DIRCM & Missile Warning Systems: Will Northrop’s CIRCM Dominate a $10 Billion Market as LAIRCM Did?

Author: Dr. David L. Rockwell, Drawn From: Military Electronics Briefing

Teal Group’s Market Overview to be published in its Military Electronics Briefing forecasts the 10-year market for Directed Infrared Counter Measures (DIRCM) systems and Missile Warning Systems (MWS) for helicopters and slow-flying fixed-wing (non-combat jet) aircraft to be worth about $10 billion over the next decade.

The market has settled out somewhat in the past few years, with two major new programs finally entering production – CIRCM for the US Army and DAIRCM for the US Navy – while the US Air Force soldiers on with upgrading its thousands of legacy LAIRCM systems for large aircraft (up to C-17s).

18 September 2023

The Importance of the Asia Fighter Aircraft Market

Author: J.J. Gertler, Drawn From: World Military & Civil Aircraft Briefing

The Singapore Airshow is important to the world’s fighter manufacturers for one very simple reason: Asia takes around 25% of the world’s combat aircraft exports by value. That makes it the second-largest export fighter market in the world, after the Middle East.

The Asian fighter market is also growing at a strong pace; the region’s fighter order backlog is considerably larger than the historical market. Almost 200 Lockheed Martin F-35s are on order for Australia, Japan and South Korea, with Singapore set to join the F-35 club (with B models at first) in the next 10 years. More Korea Aerospace Industries T-50/FA-50s are on the way for Thailand, with more likely for the Philippines.

09 June 2023

Military UAS procurement spending will increase almost $12.1 billion annually in 2023 to $16.4 billion in 2032.

Author: Steven J. Zaloga, Drawn From: World Missiles & UAV Briefing

Teal Group's 2022/2023 market study estimates that UAS procurement spending will increase from the current worldwide level of almost $12.1 billion annually in 2023 to $16.4 billion in 2032, totaling $162.2 billion over the next ten years. Military UAS research spending would add another $72.5 billion over the decade. These numbers include Teal Group’s estimates of classified US spending in procurement and R&D.
 

The Teal Group study analyzes the world military drone market on a country-by-country basis, providing unprecedented detail on the expanding global marketplace. Once limited to the world’s major armed forces, military drones are now ubiquitous. They have played a remarkable role in recent conflicts such as Ukraine, Syria, Libya and the Nagorno-Karabakh war.

13 April 2023

Air Defense Surveillance Radars after Ukraine: Cold War Legacy Renewed

Author: Dr. David L. Rockwell, Drawn From: Military Electronics Briefing

Teal Group’s Market Overview to be published in its new Radar & Sonar Systems Briefing forecasts the 10-year US-supplier-available market for Air Defense Surveillance Radars: Ground Systems to be worth more than $12 billion over the next decade.

New radar systems beginning production now for the US, the revamped ground combat needs displayed in Ukraine in 2022, and the Chinese surveillance balloon that surprised and worried the commander of USNORTHCOM and NORAD (North American Aerospace Defense Command) in 2023 all add up to a burgeoning market for Ground Radar Systems, from fixed site, continent-wide Over-The-Horizon (OTH) radar networks to truck and trailer-mounted highly mobile Air Defense systems.

27 March 2023

Wide-Body Commercial Aircraft Strengthen Over Next 10 Years

Author: Bruce McClelland, Drawn From: World Military & Civil Aircraft Briefing

At the beginning of this year we took a hard look at some of the underlying assumptions in our Commercial Aircraft forecast and that resulted in a notable increase in our 10-year forecast starting in January 2023 from the forecast we published in December 2022. At a very high level the number of large commercial aircraft (excluding regional aircraft) forecasted to be delivered over our 10-year forecast horizon grew more than eight percent from ~18,600 in our 2022 forecast to ~20,200 in our 2023 forecast.

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