The regional airliner market de­clined 5.1% by value last year. Much of this weakness was due to the tran­sition between Embraer’s E-Jet E-1 Series and the E-2, which first ar­rived last year. But there are several secular trends that are also damaging this segment, with a -5.2% com­pound annual growth rate (CAGR) in 2014-2018 and a -3.1% CAGR in 2008-2014.

Topline output continues at near record levels. Key segments look set for growth through the next three years, at least. There are areas of concern, and not all manufacturers will benefit equally, but overall the industry is in excellent shape.

World industry output in 2017 came to just over $180 billion. Deliveries in 2014-2016 have all been at about this level in constant 2018 dollars (2015 was the all-time record, at $183.5 billion).

To paraphrase Churchill, for decades I've had my own ideas about Embraer, and I didn't want them changed by any Embraerians. I'd always respected Embraer, as does much of the aerospace industry – if aerospace companies were restaurants, Embraer would be the restaurant all the other chefs visited on their days off – but until this month, I'd never visited São José dos Campos.