Teal Group gathers, classifies, and analyzes information from a wide range of sources. Our analysts publish News Briefs several times a year. Subscribe via email to receive each News Brief when it is published
Teal Group forecasts funding and future business opportunities for the four biggest airborne programs of the next decade, including the US Air Force Compass Call & Compass Call Re-host, to be worth $6.8 billion in our forecast period (including much classified funding), and the US Navy’s fighter AN/ALQ-241(V) IDECM (Integrated Defensive Electronic Countermeasures), to be worth $5.5 billion. Even bigger will be the Navy’s current/next-generation SEAD (Suppression of Enemy Air Defenses) EA-6B Prowler & EA-18G Growler EW (AN/ALQ-99 & -218 & -227) & AN/ALQ-249 Next Generation Jammer (NGJ), to be worth a combined $8.4 billion. We have also added a new, speculative Future USAF Classified ECM Aircraft evaluation and funding line – forecast to be related to Compass Call – to be worth $4.3 billion.
Last week, I wrote about Boeing's decision to ramp up 737 output to 52 per month in 2018. I sounded a cautionary note about long-term overcapacity, particularly if Airbus matches Boeing. But I'm starting to think there's no reason to worry; this announcement is far from certain to be executed. Consider the factors that could derail the ramp up: First, we're talking about 2018. A lot can happen in four years. Over the past five years, single aisle production has been massively increased by a combination of three factors: low interest rates, expensive fuel (which makes new jets more appealing than keeping or buying cheap older ones), and fast growth in emerging markets (primarily the BRICs).
Deliveries from just Airbus and Boeing last year reached $92 billion in value, another record after two other record years. In 2012, they rose 29.4% in value over 2011, capping a remarkable 55.5% growth spurt in 2008-2012.
Boeing recently decided to move the majority of its defense services and support work out of Seattle. The primary goal was to cut expenses; Seattle is a high-cost area, and the jobs will go to cheaper St. Louis and Oklahoma City. The move also reinforces Boeing's industrial footprint and political presence outside of Washington state. Boeing Defense, Space & Security (BDS) CEO Chris Chadwick termed the moves "necessary if we are going to differentiate ourselves from competitors and stay ahead of a rapidly changing global defense environment."
I don't want to make a documentary. I want to make a documentary about the making of a documentary. This meta concept seems appropriate after watching Al Jazeera's Broken Dreams. You can find it at www.aljazeera.com/investigations/boeing787. I make a few appearances, but that's why DVRs have fast-forward buttons. The documentary does not make a persuasive case against the 787 and is somewhat sensationalist. But it also tells us a lot about the state of things at Boeing. Boeing management's actions have produced a deeply angry work force. This documentary depicts some of the damage from that anger, and there's likely more blowback to come.
At last month's Singapore Airshow, Boeing executives discussed the 200-280-seat segment as a potential market for the company's next new jet. Airbus also has examined a new jet in this class. There are valid reasons to believe this will be the next new jetliner that one or both companies pursue, and that it will open a pivotal battleground.