Russian UAV systems have been shrouded in secrecy for many years, and it has only been in the past few years that any significant amount of information has emerged. Even now, there are many unanswered questions about their programs. In 2000-2010, most Russian UAV programs were either in limbo, or barely funded. The Russian Armed Forces suffered through a “procurement holiday,” since the late 1990s with few or no systems being manufactured. 

Events shaping the future of the global civil aircraft market continue to unfold. Teal Group has identified a list of newsworthy developments over the last couple of months that could shape short- and long-term demand for civil aircraft and we explain why they are important, or not.

Airbus A350 is facing criticism about the A350 weakness vis-à-vis the 787: We’ve expected the A350-900 to continue to trail the 787 (all variants), but we don’t see that as existential. We expect the A330neo will take up some of the slack. The -1000 is probably in a weaker position relative to the 777X although commonality with a family of aircraft will provide some lift.

Lockheed Martin’s F-35 is the biggest single market driver, with the long-awaited production ramp finally seeing results. Last year saw deliveries jump to 142 aircraft. We expected growth to continue through the decade, but Lockheed Martin mysteriously announced in 2021 that output would be capped at 156 per year, which is less than what the market seems to want. The company had previously said that the line can reach 180 deliveries with planned facilities. We anticipated that the 156 cap was imposed by the government as a negotiating lever and would not long endure beyond agreement on production lots 15-17. But recent Department of Defense documentation seems to indicate that the production cap will remain constant through 2030, even as the limiting factor – subcontractor throughput – is being alleviated. Even so, the F-35 will continue to be the dominant force in the fighter market through the forecast period.

The next round of US military launch contracts under the National Security Space Launch (NSSL) Phase 3 program will be awarded next year. The NSSL Phase 2 contract in 2020 went to United Launch Alliance (ULA) and SpaceX for their Vulcan and Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy launch vehicles. Phase 3 contracts (for up to 40 missions) will probably also be awarded to ULA and SpaceX for these same rockets, although there are some lawmakers in Congress who would prefer there to be more launch service providers competing for medium and heavy US military payloads.