The battle for the consumer drone manufacturing market is over, with China’s DJI Innovations dominating the market. Even DJI has tacitly acknowledged the consumer market has become mature, as evidenced by its move into higher level, more sophisticated systems.

On the other hand, the markets in commercial drone manufacturing, services and analysis are still up for grabs. This middle market, ranging from prosumer units to lower-end MALE systems, stands to enjoy the most significant growth in our forecast period, particularly as regulations evolve to permit their use in more countries and roles. US, European, and Asian companies are battling worldwide for positions in systems and services to address this market.

Teal Group’s Naval Surface Ship Radar & C4I Systems funding forecast for major large-ship radar programs will truly be huge for military electronics programs – even compared to F-35 Joint Strike Fighter (JSF) programs. Teal Group forecasts the naval radar market for large ships – one of the biggest electronics markets ever – to be worth $31.1 billion for Raytheon’s AN/SPY-6(V) AMDR & EASR & DBR Radar & C4I Systems over the next ten years, and $24.4 billion for Lockheed Martin’s AN/SPY-1(V) & SPY-7(V) & Aegis BMD Systems, with Teal Group’s new and still undetermined Future SPY-1 Replacement/Upgrade program to be worth another $5.0 billion (and forecast to ramp up all decade and still be increasing in 2030).

I don’t know from submarines. The industry, technology, and people are all very interesting, but I only cover aero systems. Yet the AUKUS SSN announcement this month has implications and lessons for the aero world. Here are two commentaries, one advertisement, and one caveat.

Commentary: the bigger the weapons deal, the more you’re buying a strategic relationship, and there are big implications for other sales to the region. Deal size isn’t always correlated with politics; Denmark, with its small 28 F-35 buy, also expects that deal to help preserve its standing in NATO, and the US’s commitment to NATO.

Teal Group’s forecasts for Present & Future Soldier Sensor Fusion Programs would make these soldier vision/C4I systems one of the world’s biggest electronics markets – of any kind – over the next decade, worth more than $11.6 billion, with continually increasing capabilities and – likely – funding. Our multiple forecast lines (see Teal Group’s Military Electronics Briefing for full forecasts) are essentially our all-inclusive future soldier vision forecasts. 

NOTE: On 12 October 2021, US Army officials confirmed at the AUSA 2021 Annual Meeting & Exposition in Washington, DC that the Army has “paused” fielding of Microsoft’s new Integrated Visual Augmentation System (IVAS) Heads Up Display (HUD) system. Teal Group’s discussion and forecasts below were largely written before the Army’s “pause” – which has not yet been presented in detail – but our forecasts already included delays in testing and fielding, and considerably less funding over the next decade than Microsoft has claimed ($22 billion). Our background and discussion below (especially for the ENVG) explain why Teal Group’s forecasts still stand – and what will likely happen over the next decade.