F-15EX Electronic Warfare Systems to Surpass F-35 in Capability – and Funding?

Teal Group Corp. forecasts futures for F-15 Eagle electronic warfare (EW) programs in a new report by Dr. David L. Rockwell in Teal’s Military Electronics Briefing. With Boeing F-15EX Eagle II procurement now doubled in the Pentagon’s FY23 defense budget request and F-35 Lightning II Joint Strike Fighter (JSF) procurement substantially reduced, Dr. Rockwell sees BAE Systems’ new AN/ALQ-250 EPAWSS (Eagle Passive/Active Warning and Survivability System) as not only potentially surpassing funding for similar but older-generation F-35 systems, but also providing the F-15EX with a more modern and capable integrated EW capability than the F-35.

F-15 EW will be worth more than a billion dollars annually for most years in Teal Group’s ten-year forecast period, increasing as US Air Force EPAWSS production ramps up over the next few years. Over the next decade, Teal Group forecasts EPAWSS and related systems will be worth $10.7 billion.

Teal Group’s report provides full coverage of the F-15’s three major EW suites, beginning with Northrop Grumman’s AN/ALQ-135 for the TEWS (Tactical Electronic Warfare System) on legacy Boeing/McDonnell Douglas F-15 fighters (development began in 1971). Production of the updated ALQ-135M likely continued until 2013 for South Korea.

In October 2008, Boeing chose BAE Systems to develop the AN/ALQ-239 Digital Electronic Warfare Suite (DEWS) for international F-15 users, in particular Saudi Arabia and Japan, leveraging technologies and common modules developed for BAE’s F-22 and F-35 EW suites. But with South Korea’s choice of the F-35 JSF rather than additional F-15s (Boeing’s Silent Eagle), the only DEWS buyers will be Saudi Arabia and the near-term Qatari order for 36+ F-15QAs finally contracted in December 2017. Other upgrade buys had been very likely (Japan initially choose DEWS for its F-15MJ upgrade), but now international buyers will get an export version of BAE’s EPAWSS.

In 2014, the US Air Force issued an RfP for the EPAWSS program, planned as an all-new EW system to replace TEWS on USAF F-15C/D/Es. At least two systems were offered for EPAWSS: BAE Systems’ DEWS and a Northrop Grumman offer based on its F-35 technology and the Block 60 F-16 Falcon Edge EW system for the UAE.

In October 2015, BAE Systems announced it had been selected by Boeing to develop and manufacture EPAWSS for more than 400 F-15Es and F-15C/Ds, as part of a $4 billion dollar program. EPAWSS procurement funding was scheduled to begin in FY19, with the legacy F-15 fleet then scheduled to remain in service through 2040 (this was pre-Trump and pre-F-15EX).

In November 2016, the USAF awarded the four-year, $478.8 million EPAWSS EMD Contract to Boeing and BAE Systems.

By January 2022, the first operational USAF unit was scheduled to receive EPAWSS-equipped aircraft in late 2023. The Air Force intended to begin fielding EPAWSS on F-15E aircraft in FY23 and on F-15EX aircraft in FY24.

Now completing testing, BAE’s ALQ-250 EPAWSS program could become the second-largest fighter electronic warfare program of all time (following the F-35 JSF EW programs’ 20-year head start…). Current F-15 ALQ-135 TEWS systems have needed replacement for years (decades, really), and after several programs intended to do this, EPAWSS looks like the one that will be produced.

The USAF currently plans to buy EPAWSS for 217 F-15Es, along with all the F-15EXs. With NATO’s new (or now unavoidably obvious, and probably continuing) threat from Russia in Europe, a very reasonable alternative to upgrading old F-15C/D Golden Eagles will be to replace them one-for-one with new F-15EXs – meaning continuing large annual buys. We discuss this possibility in detail in our report.

BAE Systems could thus see fairly immediate production of more than 400 EPAWSS systems just for the United States Air Force over the next decade.

Added to this is the likelihood of hundreds of new-build and upgrade systems for hundreds of international F-15s. We include more than 200 new EPAWSS systems for international buyers in our conservative FMS forecast.

Following literally decades of delays, most F-15s in world service may receive a new and cutting-edge EW suite, potentially superior to that carried by all or most F-35s, within just a 10-year span.

For full details, analysis, numbers, and forecasts, see the 12-page report in Teal Group’s Military Electronics Briefing.