“Boeing “has modern, competitive, second-to-none jets hobbled by dubious management”, says Richard Aboulafia, an analyst at Teal Group.”

NASA may not be able to award the lease until the U.S. Government Accountability Office weighs in. Blue Origin this month protested NASA’s solicitation with the federal arbitrator of contract disputes. The GAO has until Dec. 12 to issue its decision. Even if both companies agree to share the launch pad, the winner of the lease has control. “If you own that lease, then you can decide when you allow somebody else to use it,” said Marco Caceres, a senior space analyst for Fairfax, Virginia-based Teal Group. “You have control over when you launch instead of taking what is provided by another company when they choose to give it.”

Aviation experts expressed surprise at the announcement of a planned lawsuit, saying it may be premature before the National Transportation Safety Board completes its investigation, which could take more than a year. “This is one of the more unusual things I’ve heard,” said Richard Aboulafia, an aerospace analyst with Teal Group Corp., a Virginia research firm. “You don’t hear of much success with cases like these, particularly involving an aircraft with such a stellar safety record.”

Philip Finnegan, director of corporate analysis at Teal Group, an aerospace consulting firm based in Fairfax, Virginia, said he expected the 2014 U.S. budget to propose reductions in existing drone programs in favor of “next generation systems, stealthier, with more power, and capable of operating autonomously if jammed by opponents.” Among major competitors to the U.S. drone makers, Mr. Finnegan lists Israeli companies — in some cases working with Indian partners — and Brazilian programs aimed at that country’s need to patrol far-flung jungle borders and a long Atlantic coastline. Also emerging as future competitors, in Mr. Finnegan’s view, are Turkish Aerospace Industries; Denel, the South African state-owned aerospace and defense technology group; and some Chinese companies.

Marco Caceres, an analyst with the Teal Group, agrees that disaggregation should be a popular sell for members of Congress looking to save money in a cash-strapped environment — but warns that a change in culture is needed before it can be successful. “I think before the traditional way of doing things goes out the door, Congress is going to have to accept a new culture of how to procure these kinds of systems,” he said. For it to work, Congress is going to have to accept that it cannot have every tool loaded up onto one large, fancy system. It’s unclear how that will play, where more than one strategic plan has fallen by the wayside due to a congressman protecting jobs in his district.