Joel Johnson, an analyst with Virginia-based Teal Group, said that U.S. officials viewed the sale of spare aircraft parts as a powerful carrot for Iran, which for decades has relied on parts obtained on the black market or copied locally.
He said the move could also help American companies to put themselves in a position to benefit if a broader softening of sanctions is agreed.
"It allows some U.S. companies to get a foot in the door and restore relations that they have not had for over 20 years," Johnson said.
Top aviation-industry analyst Richard Aboulafia said Wednesday that Boeing’s 777X program could give the jet-maker a significant lead over rival Airbus in the decade ahead. But he also warned that Boeing management is running big risks with a “penny-wise and pound-foolish” strategy of squeezing its labor unions and suppliers. Stan Deal, Boeing vice president in charge of the supply chain, later defended the company’s pressure on suppliers to cut their prices. Aboulafia said the 777X is a winning concept in a size and performance category where Airbus doesn’t yet have a competitive candidate. “Airbus faces a real challenge to respond to 777X. They are going to have to find $12 billion or so to do something,” he said, adding that failure to do so could result in “a permanent Boeing advantage.”
Phil Finnegan, director of corporate analysis at the U.S. Teal Group aerospace defense consultancy, estimates the Middle East market for UAVs is currently worth around $260 million a year. He predicts this will total around $3.8 billion over the next decade, with the Middle East accounting for about 8 percent of the global UAV market. Teal estimates the global market for UAVs is likely to double from $5.2 billion to $11.6 billion by 2023. “In the international market, the Middle East is going to be very important in terms of size and for U.S. manufacturers,” Finnegan predicted.
But SpaceX’s success could reshape the way the entire globe accesses space. “There is no pressure for the Europeans, Chinese, or Russians to bring down their launch costs because they can get whatever they charge,” says Marco Caceres, analyst with the Teal Group, told the magazine. “But now that you’ve got SpaceX, that’s the key to putting downward pressure on the prices. And you should start to see launch costs gradually come down. To me that’s going to be their biggest contribution to the industry.”
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Aviation analyst Richard Aboulafia of the Teal Group expressed skepticism Saturday that Boeing would choose a greenfield site — a completely new location with no experience of airplane manufacturing. “That’s just really a bad idea,” said Aboulafia. “You are adding multiple layers of risk both in terms of workforce and infrastructure.”
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