Taking that as a guide, VG would need to be, at least, a $2 billion program. But can any company afford to do private space safely? Marco Caceres, a space-industry analyst at Teal Group, named one contender: SpaceX. Founder Elon Musk's company is positioned for success because it's financing its development with commercial and government clients, not celebrities. "That sort of funding won't come from a few hundred adventure seekers," Caceres says. "It's going to take big-time investment."

"They're getting the reputation for being a pretty gutsy company that's willing to get things done," Marco Caceres, director of space studies with Teal Group, a Fairfax, Virginia-based consultant, said in a Jan. 10 phone interview.

Two companies vying with SpaceX for a NASA commercial crew program – Boeing(BA:US) and Sparks, Nevada-based Sierra Nevada Corp. – - may also find themselves relying on Russian engines, because of their plans to use Atlas V rockets, said Marcia Smith, a former director of the space studies board at the National Research Council and now editor of Arlington, Virginia-based spacepolicyonline.com. Even so, mutual dependencies in space may make this one area that’s immune to disagreements on the ground. “The Russians are making money off these sales,” said Marco Caceres of the Fairfax, Virginia-based Teal Group. “It would make sense from a political standpoint to snub us, but from a financial standpoint, it’s not so good.”

NASA may not be able to award the lease until the U.S. Government Accountability Office weighs in. Blue Origin this month protested NASA’s solicitation with the federal arbitrator of contract disputes. The GAO has until Dec. 12 to issue its decision. Even if both companies agree to share the launch pad, the winner of the lease has control. “If you own that lease, then you can decide when you allow somebody else to use it,” said Marco Caceres, a senior space analyst for Fairfax, Virginia-based Teal Group. “You have control over when you launch instead of taking what is provided by another company when they choose to give it.”