While these cuts to overhead costs are proactive, Marco Caceres, a senior space analyst for aerospace/defense adviser Teal Group, worries that this is not the end of Lockheed’s downsizing. “They are becoming very realistic about their future of space systems,” which is changing because of budget cutbacks, budget stagnation, increased competition from international players and competition from other U.S. commercial companies, Caceres said. “They are being smart. They are moving now as opposed to two to three years from now when it might be too late,” he said. “If they can’t see a significant way to lower their costs, they could be scooted out of the business in the future.”

NASA may not be able to award the lease until the U.S. Government Accountability Office weighs in. Blue Origin this month protested NASA’s solicitation with the federal arbitrator of contract disputes. The GAO has until Dec. 12 to issue its decision. Even if both companies agree to share the launch pad, the winner of the lease has control. “If you own that lease, then you can decide when you allow somebody else to use it,” said Marco Caceres, a senior space analyst for Fairfax, Virginia-based Teal Group. “You have control over when you launch instead of taking what is provided by another company when they choose to give it.”

Marco Caceres, an analyst with the Teal Group, agrees that disaggregation should be a popular sell for members of Congress looking to save money in a cash-strapped environment — but warns that a change in culture is needed before it can be successful. “I think before the traditional way of doing things goes out the door, Congress is going to have to accept a new culture of how to procure these kinds of systems,” he said. For it to work, Congress is going to have to accept that it cannot have every tool loaded up onto one large, fancy system. It’s unclear how that will play, where more than one strategic plan has fallen by the wayside due to a congressman protecting jobs in his district.

“The two companies I think are extremely well-positioned for the future are Arianespace and SpaceX,” says Marco Caceres, an aerospace analyst with the Teal Group. “They are the ones who are the most diversified and have the best pricing.” SpaceX offers $160 million launches, about $100 million less than those of Arianespace and ULA.

It will rocket into space in 2015 with the blessing of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, which last week awarded the firm a $17.8 million contract to demonstrate the technology. Eventually, Las Vegas hotelier Robert Bigelow wants to build separate stations that might be used as research laboratories orbiting Earth or to establish a permanent presence on the moon or Mars. "Ultimately, he's hoping to build hotels in low-earth orbit and have that be one of the up-and-coming space businesses — this will give him more credibility," said Marco Caceres, a senior space analyst with Teal Group Corp. in Fairfax, Virginia. "There's a lot of people out there that say, 'Oh c'mon, hotels in low-earth orbit — that's a fantasy right?' I believe he has the tools to do it." The challenge will be finding customers, Caceres said in a phone interview. Bigelow's primary focus is on corporations and governments interested in developing astronaut programs or doing research. Space tourism is secondary, and the company has tried to steer away from the space hotel label.