If Russia did cut off supplies of the RD-180, it might be more symbolic than actually painful for the US, according to Marco Caceres, director of space studies with the Teal Group. “The Atlas V isn’t launching that much, so short-term impact would be minimal,” Caceres said. “The long-term impact would be that Atlas V would have to find another engine and that wouldn’t be easy.” The biggest impact might come not to US military launch, but to the corporate firms that provide it. Right now, military launch is provided either by ULA’s Atlas V or Delta IV. For years, the US has wanted to maintain two families of launch vehicles in case one failed. However, SpaceX looks poised for certification this year. The combination of having a third launch option, along with the lack of RD-180 parts, might lead to the end of the Atlas V. That may be all hypothetical, however, as Caceres doubts Russia would block sales of RD-180s, primarily because of the financial impact. “It’s not to the benefit of the Russians to do this. These are engines that bring in hard currency to Russia, the same way Russian oil and gas does,” he said. “Russia doesn’t really export much else of any consequence. ”

DigitalGlobe is not the only earth-imagery company capable of delivering high-resolution images, but is arguably the U.S. industry leader. “There are an awful lot of assets up in orbit,” said Marco Caceres, senior space analyst at The Teal Group. “There’s dozens of earth observation satellites and all of them are very, very capable. If they are taking images, then there’s no lack of imagery. And if you haven’t been able to spot something by now, then I don’t know. It has been three days.”

SpaceX’s prices are so low that they could upend the price structure the Air Force has used in sending military satellites into orbit. “What we do know is that if you look at a SpaceX heavy launcher like a Falcon 9 or a Falcon heavy, it’s at least 50 percent cheaper than a comparable vehicle by Boeing or Lockheed,” said Marco Caceres, senior analyst at the Teal Group Corp. in Fairfax, Va. “We’re talking at least $50 million cheaper per vehicle so it’s a significant cost saving for the Air Force.”

But SpaceX’s success could reshape the way the entire globe accesses space. “There is no pressure for the Europeans, Chinese, or Russians to bring down their launch costs because they can get whatever they charge,” says Marco Caceres, analyst with the Teal Group, told the magazine. “But now that you’ve got SpaceX, that’s the key to putting downward pressure on the prices. And you should start to see launch costs gradually come down. To me that’s going to be their biggest contribution to the industry.”

On Saturday, The Decatur Daily reported that Virginia-based aerospace industry analyst Marco Caceres said ULA’s large scale compared to newer competitors means it will have to cut workers to remain competitive in a tightening fiscal environment. “I think what they’re doing is looking at the future and saying they don’t see too much opportunity for growth and thinking they’ve got to be a little leaner to compete against some of the younger and smaller companies like SpaceX,” he said. “They’re going to have to lay off people.”