WASHINGTON, March 13, 2023 /PRNewswire/ -- Teal Group announced today release of updated data for the number of space payloads proposed to be built and launched during 2023-2032. In its latest Worldwide Mission Model Online survey, Teal identified a total of 42,067 satellites, probes and capsules destined for orbit over the next 10 years, or 19% more than last year’s WMMO 10-year survey which included 34,196 payloads.
"The pace in the number of payloads being built and launched worldwide definitely continues to increase. It is as hot of a market as I’ve ever seen, and I’ve been tracking the satellite and launch services market since 1990,” says Teal’s senior space analyst Marco Cáceres. “Just a few years ago, the world was launching some 200 or less payloads annually, then suddenly in 2017, with the replenishment of the Iridium constellation and the launch of dozens of new Earth imaging nanosatellites by companies like Planet Labs and Spire Global, we were launching more than twice that many and we were off to the races.”
Annual Payload Launches
2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 Total
2,663 3,736 3,858 3,798 4,882 4,810 4,963 4,209 4,930 4,218 42,067
A total of 486 payloads were launched to Earth orbit and beyond in 2017, followed by 487 in 2098 and 515 in 2019. The next major “leap forward” came in 2020 and 2021, with a total of 1,292 and 1,862 payloads launched respectively. In 2022, the numbers again began to grow markedly, with a total of 2,521 payloads launched.
"The explosion in the number of payloads being launched began around the middle of the last decade with the move to build and launch lots of tiny satellites weighing around five kilograms or even less, says Cáceres. “But the revolution in the satellite and launch services industry really began in November 2019 when SpaceX began launching its initial batch of operational Starlink communications satellites.
The launches of Starlink satellites are what has largely fueled the growth of the market during the past three years. Of the satellites that were launched in in 2020, 836 of them, or 65%, were Starlinks. Of those launched in 2021, 989 (53%) were Starlinks. Of those launched in 2022, 1,730 (69%) were Starlinks.
“And the thing is, says Cáceres, “the Starlink system is still in its infancy. There are thousands of Starlinks yet to be launched over the next 10 years, in addition to thousands of similar satellites by U.S. and European competing systems such as OneWeb and Project Kuiper and even larger Chinese constellations such as China SatNet (Guowang).”
The real question says Cáceres is whether there will be sufficient launch capacity to deploy all of the payloads envisioned. More than three quarters of the spacecraft currently being launched are going up on SpaceX Falcon 9 rockets. There are several large new launch vehicles under development, including Arianespace’s Ariane 6, Blue Origin’s New Glenn, United Launch Alliance’s Vulcan, several new Chinese Long March models, as well as SpaceX’s Starship mega-rocket. But it is unclear whether these vehicles and a few others will be sufficient to deploy the tens of thousands of planned payloads through 2032.
More than 98 percent of the payloads contained in the WMMO are commercial and weigh less than 500 kilograms. The remainder are a mix of civil, military and university & non-profit payloads, which are mostly destined for low Earth orbits.
The WMMO is a big picture of the payloads that have been proposed to be built and launched. It is not a "forecast" of the space market, but rather a starting point from which to begin to develop individual forecasts based on certain assumptions about the programs, the manufacturers, the operators and competitive and financial factors.
Contacts: Marco Cáceres, This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. +1-703-385-1992, ext 104; Doug Cornell, This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it., +1-703-573-5374.
