New York City, Monday, November 25, 2013 — Coinciding with the SATCON Satellite Communications Conference & Expo held here November 13-14 at the Javits Convention Center, Teal Group space analysts have identified 3,164 space payloads proposed to be built and launched to earth or deep space orbits between 2013 and 2032. They estimate the value of these satellites and other space payloads at more than $235 billion.
Near term, Teal analysts identify and quantify 276 proposed launches in 2013 (minus the 150 launched through November 20, 2013), 481 in 2014, 481 in 2015, 329 in 2016, 173 in 2017, 102 in 2019, 111 in 2020, 98 in 2021 and 103 in 2022.
"Most spacecraft that have been announced are proposed to be built and launched within the next 3-4 years," said Teal Group senior space analyst Marco Cáceres. "That's why the numbers are so high over the next four years. We simply know more for the near-term than the out-years: 81 in 2023, 82 in 2024, 99 in 2025, 89 in 2026, 75 in 2027, 83 in 2028, 86 in 2029, 104 in 2030, 79 in 2031, and 85 in 2032."
Teal Group publishes its detailed space payload numbers in a daily-updated online spreadsheet, Worldwide Mission Model Online (Contact regional representatives at www.tealgroup.com).
Proposed Spacecraft by Type
In their latest updating by spacecraft type, Teal analysts noted that more than one-third of spacecraft are commercial and nearly one-third are civil. About one-third are military and university and other.
"Most of the commercial spacecraft are for communications, imaging or navigation," said Cáceres. "Civil and military are a wider mix — scientific, communications, imaging, navigation, early-warning, exploration, technology, crew transport and cargo resupply."
Proposed Spacecraft by Mass
Of proposed spacecraft by mass, two-thirds of the spacecraft weigh under 1,500 kg.
"Most under 1,500 kg are LEO mobile commercial comsats, MEO commercial and military navsats, and university techsats," said Cáceres. "Most between 1,500 – 6,500 kg are GEO commercial comsats and MEO military navsats. Most over 6,500 kg are LEO military spysats and LEO civil capsules."
Proposed Spacecraft by Orbit
Of proposed spacecraft by orbit, more than two-thirds of the spacecraft are destined for low earth orbits (LEO), with 17% for geostationary orbits (GEO).
"Most of the LEOs are commercial mobile comsats and a variety of military, civil and university satellites," said Cáceres. "Most of the GEOs are commercial comsats. MEOs are navigation, deep space are civil, and most elliptical are scientific."
Proposed Spacecraft by Customer Region
Of proposed spacecraft by customer region, three-quarters of the spacecraft are proposed by government agencies, companies, universities and organizations in the US, Russia and Europe.
"No surprise that US, Russia and Europe continue to dominate, given their large national space programs and base of spacecraft manufacturers and commercial operators," said Cáceres.
"But the fastest growing region is Asia and the Pacific Rim, notably China and India, fueled by ambitious national space programs and huge demand for commercial satellite services," Cáceres added.
Proposed Spacecraft by Operator
At least one-third of the spacecraft are proposed by the US and Russian governments, Teal Group analysts reported, including 18% by MoD/Rosaviaskosmos (Russia), 17% by DoD/NASA (USA), 6% by CNSA/CMA/Army (China), 5% by Iridium (USA), 5% by ESA (Europe), and 49% by other.
"The numbers for the US government are inflated by dozens of Microsats, Nanosats and Picosats, as well as GPS III navsats and NRO spysats," said Cáceres.
"The numbers for the Russians are inflated by dozens of Cosmos milsats, Glonass navsats, Gonets mobile comsats, and Progress and Soyuz capsules," he added.
Proposed Spacecraft by Launch Vehicle Nationality
Just under 40% of the spacecraft are designated for launch by US, Russian, Chinese or European launch vehicles, Teal Group analysts reported, including 14% by the US, 13% by Russia, 8% by China, 4% by Europe, and 61% by other.
"Keep in mind," said Cáceres, "probably half (or more) of the spacecraft announced and identified in our Teal Group Worldwide Mission Model will never be built and launched, because of insufficient funding or technical challenges. And other spacecraft not yet proposed or even conceived will be built and launched.
"And that's why we keep careful track of payload activity, altering our numbers with daily changes, as required."
Teal Group is an aerospace and defense consulting firm based in Fairfax, Virginia USA. It provides competitive market intelligence to industry and government worldwide.