Not everyone agrees. "It's just sort of a baffling product," says Richard Aboulafia, vice president for analysis at Teal Group, and aerospace and defense consultancy based in Fairfax, Va. "It's the perfect solution to a problem that doesn't exist."

Aboulafia says less-expensive turboprop aircraft have proven themselves more than capable of conducting ISR and striking ground targets. The Scorpion's relatively low, subsonic speed and lack of sophisticated radar put it a class below the lowest-end fighter jets capable of air-to-air intercept and combat, he adds. "I'm not sure where the demand would come from," he says.

Experts on military aircraft are divided on the Scorpion’s prospects. The 2,000-aircraft estimate “is ambitious but reasonable,” says Kristin White, a senior associate at Avascent, a defense-industry consulting firm. “The competition is going to be tough, but [air forces] will have to take a look” because of the price and capabilities. Others see limited demand for such a plane and say the market is already well served. “I just don’t get it,” says Richard Aboulafia, a vice president at Teal Group, an aerospace consultancy. He reckons demand for the Scorpion’s niche is fewer than 20 planes a year.