Marco Caceres, a senior space analyst at the Teal Group in Fairfax, said the Pentagon has been lucky that the current GPS systems have lasted so long, but they now need to be replaced. “You’re fighting two wars,” he said. “You have military troops all over that have to communicate, and they’re dependent on satellites.” The newest GPS program will be closely watched, as the Pentagon’s space programs have long suffered cost overruns, problematic technologies and delays. John Young, the Pentagon’s undersecretary for acquisition, technology and logistics, said he has directed the Air Force to tie the contractor’s payments to “specific program accomplishments,” not to adjust the scope of the program or change its technical specifications and to “consider solutions which lower cost or risk to deliver within or below budget.”

The oversight efforts, Young said, are part of “continuing a DoD push to award fees more carefully and on a more objective basis.” Of the Pentagon’s eight biggest satellite programs, all are over budget, from at least 20 percent over to more than double the original price, Caceres said. That includes a missile detection and warning satellite system made by Lockheed. “DoD is always looking for the latest technology for its satellites,” Caceres said. “The problem is that technology develops quickly but the development of the satellite itself takes a while. By the time it gets to its maturity, you realize there’s more advanced technology out there, so you add that at the last minute, and it leads to higher costs.”

"The last bastion of the losing protectionist is to wave the bloody 'Buy America' shirt," said analyst Joel Johnson of the Teal Group. "It tells you they don't have another argument -- e.g., the (Northrop) product was newer, more capable and less risky."

He said the decision to have Northrop and EADS build the new tanker would be difficult to overturn if an appeal occurred. Richard Aboulafia of the Teal Group in Fairfax, Va., said the decision was not “what anyone expected” because Boeing had the home team and incumbent advantage. He said there is very little historical precedent that a protest would result in overturning an award.

That would mean big new opportunities and more funding for major projects for local defense and technology contractors, including Lockheed Martin of Bethesda, General Dynamics of Falls Church, SI International of Reston, CACI International of Arlington and Northrop Grumman, which is based in Los Angeles but has a large presence in the Washington area. “The expectation has been that it can’t continue to increase as it has,” Phil Finnegan, a defense analyst at the Teal Group in Fairfax, said of defense spending. “But it has surprised everyone to see how long this increase has continued. This budget was a great budget for all defense contractors. It includes continuing growth — not as fast as last year, but it enabled everyone’s programs to be funded.” Finnegan, other analysts and executives at contracting companies said they don’t expect the party to last indefinitely.

Combining the consumer businesses with the world’s largest commercial satellite operator could raise significant antitrust issues, analysts said. “Of course this has regulatory red lights all over it,” said Marco Caceres, an analyst with the Teal Group, a Fairfax market-research firm. “Now you’re talking about companies basically having a monopoly within satellite broadcasting, making it really tough for newcomers to compete.”