Teledesic President Russell Daggatt insists he can limit the costs to $9 billion. Maybe. “Teledesic will probably cost closer to $15 billion, and I’m being conservative,” predicts satellite expert Marco Caceres of Fairfax, Va.-based aerospace consultants Teal Group.

Still, the new Teledesic promises to be a formidable competitor. “The two of them together certainly makes the venture more credible,” says Maehl. In addition to the savvy and deep pockets of Gates and McCaw, it has strong international backing. In April, billionaire Prince Alwaleed of Saudi Arabia invested $200 million for a 13.7% stake–and agreed to help market the service.SPEEDY. Motorola’s satellite-building skills will also be critical. The company has trimmed satellite manufacturing time down to little more than four days, compared with an industry average of two years for larger birds. “Really, the best people to build [Teledesic] would be Motorola, because they have this assembly-line technique,” says Marco Caceres, senior space analyst at market researcher Teal Group.

But if the plan fails, Teledesic may be financially out of luck. “Everything depends on Iridium,” said Marco Caceres, senior space analyst with the Teal Group. “It’s clear in the investment community that if, on 23 September, they turn on the switch and it [doesn't] work, it would be bad for Celestri,” he added. “They won’t be able to raise US$15 billion or whatever it will cost if their $5 billion system isn’t working,” noted Caceres, who pores over satellite system proposals and papers to advise investors.

If Teledesic is to one day offer competitive prices to customers of the high-speed computer network, it must keep costs down now. But Marco Caceres, a space-industry analyst with The Teal Group in McLean, Va., says industry sources have told him that Boeing is projecting the satellites could cost $35 million apiece. Teledesic wants to pay $20 million each. If Caceres’ numbers are accurate, for example, the total project cost – including launching the satellites – could jump from the $9 billion target to between $13 billion and $15 billion. Caceres said that by industry standards, Teledesic’s $9 billion goal is too ambitious. “Pricing is not an exact science, by any means,” he said. “But I cannot believe these guys are not expecting the price would eventually go up.”

While China’s anti-satellite system test created a bit more debris in orbit by reducing China’s Feng Yun 1C polar-orbiting weather satellite to a cloud of debris, it is everyday space operations that contribute the vast majority of the space junk in orbit. “The response to the Chinese test was probably overdone,” says Marco Caceres, senior analyst and director of space studies for Teal Group of Fairfax, Va. “Debris is going into space all the time. Satellites are maneuvered down and burn up in the atmosphere and spread into tiny pieces.

Often where there is a launch, the upper stage of the rocket eventually drops off before placing satellite into orbit. Much of that will burn in the atmosphere, but some will stay in orbit. … The Chinese test was not anything particularly alarming in itself,” he says. “The issue of space debris is alarming, particularly for commercial operators and especially at low-Earth orbit, where a lot of that debris will end up. There is still a chance to be hit, even though it’s a huge area. This has to be addressed as we put up more satellites.”