“It sounds like [the Boeing] 787, 747-8 and [Lockheed Martin] F-35 to me,” says Richard Aboulafia, vice president for analysis at the Teal Group, referring to programs that had to incorporate late design changes during production ramp-up. “If you are missing important milestones, you get beaten up by the financial markets or your customers. . . . You want to meet time guarantees more than performance guarantees.” Introducing upgrades later in production while keeping the schedule intact “is more of a problem in the long term,” Aboulafia asserts. One of the major issues of putting risks on balance sheets is the question of residual values, which become relevant when an operator plans to sell an early-batch A350. The approach is also very expensive, both for Airbus and its suppliers.

Top aviation-industry analyst Richard Aboulafia said Wednesday that Boeing’s 777X program could give the jet-maker a significant lead over rival Airbus in the decade ahead. But he also warned that Boeing management is running big risks with a “penny-wise and pound-foolish” strategy of squeezing its labor unions and suppliers. Stan Deal, Boeing vice president in charge of the supply chain, later defended the company’s pressure on suppliers to cut their prices. Aboulafia said the 777X is a winning concept in a size and performance category where Airbus doesn’t yet have a competitive candidate. “Airbus faces a real challenge to respond to 777X. They are going to have to find $12 billion or so to do something,” he said, adding that failure to do so could result in “a permanent Boeing advantage.”

Aviation analyst Richard Aboulafia of the Teal Group expressed skepticism Saturday that Boeing would choose a greenfield site — a completely new location with no experience of airplane manufacturing. “That’s just really a bad idea,” said Aboulafia. “You are adding multiple layers of risk both in terms of workforce and infrastructure.”

“There’s no economic argument that I can think of for leaving Puget Sound,” said Richard Aboulafia, an aerospace analyst with Teal Group, a Fairfax, Va.-based consultant. The 777X is hugely important to Boeing’s future in the commercial airplane industry, where it faces competition now from Airbus with Russia and China looking to get more market share in the next decade, experts say.

After formally unveiling the plane on the opening day of the Dubai Air Show, Boeing announced airline orders for the 777-8X and 777-9X worth nearly $100 billion at list price. After Boeing’s experience with the 787, which saw three years of delay before the first delivery, the company’s margin of error for delivering the 777X is “between zero and none,” Aboulafia said. Everett and Puget Sound offer the least production risk, noting its trained workforce, developed infrastructure and state support, and none of that is going to change in three months, he said.

“Boeing “has modern, competitive, second-to-none jets hobbled by dubious management”, says Richard Aboulafia, an analyst at Teal Group.”