Space Launches: By the Numbers

The total number of rockets launched in 2018 is 112, including the three failed launches. That’s an increase of 19.6% over 2017, and it is the first time in the past quarter of a century that the number has surpassed 100. For most of the last 25 years, the number of attempted launches ranged between 55-90 annually. The launch pace this year is about the same as last year, so I expect there will be more than 100 launch attempts by the end of 2019.

We’re entering new territory now. This makes sense, given the new launch vehicles that have become active in the market—rockets like Rocket Lab’s Electron; China’s Chongqing SQX, Hyperbola, Jielong and Kuaizhou; Iran’s Simorgh and Japan’s Epsilon and SS-520. These are names we’re not used to hearing. Add to this the fact that rocket families like Falcon, Long March and Soyuz are continuing to launch at their usual fast paces and others like Northrop Grumman’s Antares and India’s PSLV are being launched more regularly, while more traditional programs like Ariane and Atlas remain consistent... and what you have is a noticeably more robust launch market.

It looks like this year will be better than the past two years for commercial geostationary satellite orders. As of this month, satellite operators have placed orders for 10 GEO comsats, compared to five for all of last year and seven for 2017. I’m not sure we can read much into this. In other words, I don’t think we’re headed for a return to the days when the big satellite makers could count on more than 20 GEO comsats ordered annually. While that segment of the satellite will not go away entirely anytime soon, it’s clear that the future belongs to smallsats and nanosats.