The Socom notification is a big deal for the drone industry, said Phil Finnegan, director of corporate analysis for the Teal Group, an aerospace defense consulting firm. "From the industry perspective this is important, because there are very few programs out there," said Finnegan. "Companies are eager not just to get the business, but to get a blue chip customer like Socom."

Phil Finnegan, an aviation analyst with the Teal Group, said while the U.S. has led the world in developing the technology behind drones, it's fallen far behind when it comes to letting them fly legally.

"Countries like Canada, Australia, the United Kingdom — a lot of European countries — are going after this market," he says.

It'll take the FAA several years to finalize regulations for all drones, Finnegan says, but he believes this initial move will make the American motion picture industry more competitive on the world stage.

“The problem both CBP and the Coast Guard have is that they both have very tight budgets,” said Phil Finnegan, director of corporate analysis for the Teal Group. He notes that CBP already flies MQ-9s along the border and may not want to “downgrade” its small fleet of unmanned systems. As is, CBP has come under fire from watchdog groups for the cost of its MQ-9 program. The Coast Guard might be a better bet, Finnegan said. The service has sought unmanned capability for years, including a failed attempt at developing its own specialized platform known as the Eagle Eye, and has a standing interest in land-based UAVs. Taking the older Predators from the Air Force may be a cheap option.

Phil Finnegan, director of corporate analysis at the Teal Group, agreed that the control regime could prevent U.S. drone manufacturers from accessing emerging markets.  “There’s definitely a risk of losing market share because of MTCR,” he said. “As this technology spreads worldwide, the U.S. and Israel are not going to be the only exporters. New potential exporters include Turkey and India. China is developing a wide range of UAVs and is beginning to get into the export market.”

Turkey is one of 34 MTCR members. Israel, China and India do not have to abide by the regime’s export rules.  Some change has occurred in the interpretation of the MTCR, allowing U.S. allies to purchase certain systems, Finnegan said. The Australian Navy has purchased the Triton, the U.S. Navy’s maritime version of the Global Hawk for surveillance missions at sea. South Korea is also interested in the Triton, while Japan has indicated a desire to own the U.S. Air Force’s version of the UAV, he said.

“You are also seeing a trend where U.S. companies are being proactive and trying to develop export versions of UAVs that are saleable,” Finnegan said. General Atomics did just that with its Predator XP, an unarmed version of the medium-altitude, long-endurance UAV flown by the U.S. military. The United Arab Emirates was able to procure an XP because it is specifically designed to not carry weapons and its maximum payload is below the 500-kilogram threshold.  General Atomics officials declined to comment for this story.  

“Allies will buy these versions that may not have the capabilities that U.S. forces use but suit their purposes fine,” Finnegan said. “That opens the way for a country like Saudi Arabia to purchase these kinds of high-end UAVs.”

Although figures for Spain are unclear, a study by defense consultancy The Teal Group last year estimated current global sales are around $5.2 billion a year, and expected to almost double to $11.6 billion over the next decade. Armed with built-in cameras and sensors, custom-built unmanned aerial vehicles, or UAVs, produced by Mas and other small Spanish companies can map the topography of mines and mountains, monitor crops and help fight fires in remote areas.