The State Department officials acknowledged that the definition of maritime security will likely include aircraft. And for a US industrial base that is hoping for foreign sales to boost profits amid domestic budget cuts, Vietnam could represent a goldmine, said Richard Aboulafia of the Teal Group.

"There is a very high degree of inevitably that one day Vietnam will be a major US defense equipment market, and for quite a few years they've been heading in that direction," Aboulafia said. "Once again, the No. 1 promoter of the US cause, in terms of diplomacy, military cooperation and defense sales, is Beijing."

Foreign military sales of the A-29, like the LAS contract, is one possibility. But that market is relatively small, said Richard Aboulafia of the Teal Group, and unlikely to expand. "I don't know what would make this market go away," he said, noting the market tends to average 18 to 24 planes a year. "On the other hand, I can't think of anything that would drive it upwards."

Phil Finnegan, director of corporate analysis at the Teal Group, agreed that the control regime could prevent U.S. drone manufacturers from accessing emerging markets.  “There’s definitely a risk of losing market share because of MTCR,” he said. “As this technology spreads worldwide, the U.S. and Israel are not going to be the only exporters. New potential exporters include Turkey and India. China is developing a wide range of UAVs and is beginning to get into the export market.”

Turkey is one of 34 MTCR members. Israel, China and India do not have to abide by the regime’s export rules.  Some change has occurred in the interpretation of the MTCR, allowing U.S. allies to purchase certain systems, Finnegan said. The Australian Navy has purchased the Triton, the U.S. Navy’s maritime version of the Global Hawk for surveillance missions at sea. South Korea is also interested in the Triton, while Japan has indicated a desire to own the U.S. Air Force’s version of the UAV, he said.

“You are also seeing a trend where U.S. companies are being proactive and trying to develop export versions of UAVs that are saleable,” Finnegan said. General Atomics did just that with its Predator XP, an unarmed version of the medium-altitude, long-endurance UAV flown by the U.S. military. The United Arab Emirates was able to procure an XP because it is specifically designed to not carry weapons and its maximum payload is below the 500-kilogram threshold.  General Atomics officials declined to comment for this story.  

“Allies will buy these versions that may not have the capabilities that U.S. forces use but suit their purposes fine,” Finnegan said. “That opens the way for a country like Saudi Arabia to purchase these kinds of high-end UAVs.”

Aerospace analyst, Richard Aboulafia with the Virginia-based Teal Group said the F-35′s first overseas appearance marked the start of a more aggressive drive to lock in foreign orders at a time when the U.S. military has repeatedly delayed its own. “What they really need to do is transform the program’s economics by getting above that 30-something (annual production) plateau they’re on,” he said. “They need to get to a virtuous cycle where numbers go up and costs go down … the opposite of a death spiral.”

These proposed sales, particularly the long-range SLAM-ERs, raised eyebrows in the defense community. If these sales are approved by Congress, it would mark the first time SLAM-ER has been sold to the Gulf region. Analysts point to the rise of Iran, a joint enemy to the US, Israel and countries in the Gulf Cooperation Council, as a key driver that could be changing the long-held policy. “Seeing these [deals] pop up strongly suggests to me there has been a policy change somewhere,” said Steve Zaloga, an analyst with the Virginia-based Teal Group. “Somebody had made a decision that these will be openly offered to Saudi Arabia and the UAE.”