Boeing (NYSE: BA) and Spirit have been working for some time a new long-term agreement. The newly announced deal amends the current agreement, which was extended last year. Richard Aboulafia, an aviation analyst with Virgina-based Teal Group, says the agreement is good in that it removes short-term uncertainties. While a longer-term deal would be good, getting pricing set in the interim is a beneficial step, he says. “If you look at this like a war, a cease fire is always a good thing,” he says. As for the question of variant aircraft, Aboulafia says it may be more of a function of timing in terms of where those aircraft are in their development.
But you can bet Delta will drive a hard bargain for the twin-engine 777s, although it may be hard-pressed to get the discounts it would like. “777 300ER has some of the best pricing in the business,” said Richard Aboulafia, analyst from the Teal Group, outside Washington, D.C. “‘What Delta would like is 50 percent off list, and they’re not going to get that with the 777 300ER. But given the bridge problem, they might do this in a few years.”
“You used to get quite a lot of 747s, but not that many that come in here now,” Chester says. “I think 747s will be a thing of the past in the not-too-distant future.” In fact, industry analysts have predicted that for some time, Richard Aboulafia, a commercial and military aircraft expert with the Teal Group consulting firm, says that with its four engines, the 747 is a gas-guzzler. Airlines are opting instead for newer, two-engine planes — like Boeing’s 787 Dreamliner. “Getting rid of engines is a great thing in terms of fuel efficiency,” Aboulafia says. “That’s why more and more airlines are focusing on those smaller-sized planes.”
Indeed, titanium supply constrictions could become a sore point for companies such as Boeing if more sanctions are applied, several analysts note, meaning at least higher prices for the element. “That is going to be a key concern,” says Richard Aboulafia, vice president for analysis at the Teal Group. The aerospace industry is one of the top customers for titanium alloy products, with newer commercial aircraft using far more than previous generations due to its favorable strength-to-weight ratio. Boeing has forecast it would spend $27 billion on Russian titanium supply, design engineering and services “over the next decades.” In July 2009, Boeing and VSMPO-Avisma, Russia’s largest titanium producer, started a 50/50 joint venture, Ural Boeing Manufacturing (UBM) in Verkhnyaya Salda.
Aerospace analyst Richard Aboulafia is referring to Boeing’s “Partnering for Success” program. The company has been touting the program as a partnership with suppliers intended to make both the company and its aerospace suppliers competitive and profitable, but some suppliers consider it an unfair invasion.
Aboulafia, a senior aerospace analyst for the Teal Group outside Washington, D.C., in his March briefing message said he thinks Partnering for Success may prove to be a “serious self-inflicted wound” for Boeing Co. (NYSE: BA). In his analysis, he points to Boeing’s tactic of taking companies off the list of potential suppliers if they don’t meet Partnering for Success (PFS) standards, a practice that Boeing CEO Jim McNerney has called a “no-fly list.”
“Since the Orwellian-sounding PFS began last year, I don’t think I’ve met a supplier who wasn’t either angry about, or scared by this initiative,” Aboulafia wrote. He added that the tactic is removing from consideration some seasoned suppliers such as UTC Aerospace Systems, which builds the landing gear for the current 777 but will be replaced for the 777X. Aboulafia made similar points in his annual presentation during the Pacific Northwest Aerospace Alliance annual convention in February, before an audience of somber local and international suppliers.
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