But critics like Richard Aboulafia, an aerospace analyst at the Teal Group, an aviation-consulting firm in Fairfax, Va., say the main problem is more fundamental: Airbus made the wrong prediction about travel preferences.

He said people would rather take direct flights on smaller airplanes than get on big ones — no matter their feats of engineering — that make connections through huge hubs. "It's a commercial disaster," Aboulafia says. "Every conceivably bad idea that anyone's ever had about the aviation industry is embodied in this airplane."

The talks give Dubai-based Emirates leverage as it pushes Airbus Group to upgrade its A380 with fuel-efficient engines, said Richard Aboulafia, an aerospace analyst at Teal Group. Boeing would gain momentum for a storied jet with few sales prospects aside from replacing the Air Force One fleet, he said. “It would keep the -8I going through the decade and deliver an unpleasant blow to the A380 that’s long overdue,” Aboulafia said of a potential Emirates order.