"It's as much an industrial policy as a fighter," said Richard Aboulafia, vice president at Teal Group, an aerospace consultancy.

Not everyone agrees. "It's just sort of a baffling product," says Richard Aboulafia, vice president for analysis at Teal Group, and aerospace and defense consultancy based in Fairfax, Va. "It's the perfect solution to a problem that doesn't exist."

Aboulafia says less-expensive turboprop aircraft have proven themselves more than capable of conducting ISR and striking ground targets. The Scorpion's relatively low, subsonic speed and lack of sophisticated radar put it a class below the lowest-end fighter jets capable of air-to-air intercept and combat, he adds. "I'm not sure where the demand would come from," he says.

As military strategists look ahead, the days of asymmetric warfare and the uncontested airspace that comes with it seem to be drawing to a close. "There are no active area defenses run by insurgents in Afghanistan and Iraq or, for that matter, Syria," says defense analyst Phil Finnegan, of the Fairfax, Virginia–based Teal Group. "But the next generation of UAVs will have to confront potential threats like China. They'll need to be much more capable—faster, with greater autonomy in case communication links are disrupted, and stealthier so they are more difficult for an adversary to detect."

Marco Caceres, a space analyst with the Teal Group, called the CSM change a "win-win" for both sides.

"Every time you cooperate, every time you fulfill or submit a request, that is how you build relationships," Caceres said. "Particularly if the US is coming to see China as their next military rival in space, and they are doing an awful lot and spending a lot more money on both military and non-military space, potentially [this new agreement] could be significant because it strengthens the relationship."