In March 2019 in the US Navy’s FY20 budget, the MH-60R Seahawk Multi-Mission Maritime Helicopter was stated to be the primary ASW (Anti-Submarine Warfare) sensor in the Carrier Strike Group. But despite its crucial importance, production for the US Navy will be ending soon, and some electronics suppliers face an uncertain future. There may soon be no companies left outside the “Big Three” of Raytheon, Northrop, and Lockheed to maintain a competitive military radar market.
Teal Group recently updated its outlook for ground-based air defense radar programs, including BMDS systems, as well as a few airborne ISR systems. The financial value of these programs is great – with several multi-billion programs (and much still uncontracted).
One of the largest future programs, despite being a legacy system, is Raytheon’s radars for the Patriot air defense missile system. Teal Group forecasts Patriot radar and C4I funding of between $900 million and $1.2 billion annually throughout our forecast period.
Teal Group Corporation's overall, cumulative military electronics Manufacturer Market Shares Forecast for the next ten years (FY18-FY27) shows 33.1% of the total market will be available for new primes (worth a whopping $161.0 billion), when considering that continuing production for most current programs is locked up by the incumbent. Note that a much higher share than this 33.1% will be available for subcontractors.
Although the AN/APY-8 Lynx was the best of the first generation of production-ready small SARs (Northrop Grumman’s TESAR was the only other major system, and that was removed from service on Predators without a replacement), Teal Group has long believed there has been a chance that Lynx production could have been cancelled or greatly reduced for the USAF Reaper procurement. But the first published Lynx/Reaper contract in a long time – the Air Force’s contract for 72 Block 20A Lynx upgrades in May 2015 – gave us new confidence that Lynx would continue to serve on Reaper. In February 2016, USAF FY17 budget documents indicated there were about 250 Lynx radars procured or planned for Reaper – basically one per Reaper.