USAF F-16s now to Remain “Relevant” thru 2048+… with $9 Billion EW Upgrade

Future USAF F-16 EW Suite

In January 2019, a new US Air Force commercial/defense consortium-led “prototyping” program was announced with the goal of deciding how to upgrade or replace hundreds of legacy Raytheon AN/ALQ-184 and Northrop Grumman AN/ALQ-131 ECM (Electronic Countermeasures) pods and other systems aboard USAF F-16s.

Though once expected to be totally replaced by the Lockheed Martin F-35, by 2018 the Air Force planned to keep the single-engined F-16 fleet flying, upgraded, and “relevant” up to 2048. The EW “prototype” program could ultimately lead to a fleet-wide electronic warfare upgrade for more than 900 USAF F-16s – worth as much as $9 billion.

In November 2019, the USAF chose L3Harris (see also AN/ALQ-211 report) and Northrop Grumman (see also AN/ALQ-131 report) to develop and demonstrate a Prototype F-16 Internally-mounted Electronic Warfare (EW) Suite and Digital RWR. According to Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL) documents, the upgrades could include a full suite of passive and active systems, including a digital radar warning receiver (RWR), self-protection jammer, and towed decoy.

By mid-2020, the US military was finally funding a new generation of EW for all of its fighters, including Raytheon’s Next Generation Jammer (NGJ) for US Navy F/A-18s, BAE Systems’ EPAWSS (Eagle Passive/Active Warning and Survivability System) for USAF F-15s, and of course BAE/Northrop Grumman’s F-35 JSF AN/ASQ-239 EW Suite.

F-16 EW has so far fallen through the cracks, with some of the world’s very oldest Cold War EW systems still in front-line service. Perhaps, as has happened before, the USAF feared the DoD would kill its expensive new program (F-35) by making the legacy program (F-16) too effective. Updating F-16 EW (along with the AN/APG-83 SABR AESA radar, etc.) should now provide a maneuverable, reliable, inexpensive fighter with modern systems* (F-16), and with continuing service now expected through 2048, we will have decades to judge whether the upgraded Fighting Falcon/Viper is still better than a much more expensive, less reliable, and less fighter-like aircraft (F-35) which in fact now has mostly out-dated electronics already requiring billions of dollars for upgrades….

*Northrop Grumman themselves describe their upgraded ECM pods as, “bring[ing] fifth-generation electronic countermeasures to the fourth-generation fleet.”

In any case, Teal Group is adding a new report to the Military Electronics Briefing, with a speculative funding line for what could soon become a huge F-16 RF ECM buy – our new Future USAF F-16 EW Suite forecast. With the F-35 now too-big-to-fail (at least before the coronavirus crisis), the USAF seems to finally be serious about F-15 upgrades, and we will speculatively forecast they will also begin massively funding a major F-16 EW suite procurement program this decade, with just over 900 F-16s still in service and many now expected to continue in service through 2048.

Our speculative forecast of Future USAF F-16 EW Suite funding – uncontracted, available, and to be worth more than $3 billion over the next ten years – ramps up to $750 million annually by the end of the decade.

Future FMS F-16 RF ECM Systems

But what about the hundreds of international F-16s also expected to remain in front-line service for decades?

In the 2000s, with Chile, Poland, and Oman choosing ITT’s (now L3Harris) lightweight and inexpensive SIRFC-derived AN/ALQ-173(V) AIDEWS (Advanced Integrated Defense Electronics Warfare System) for new F-16s in 2002 and 2003, Turkey following in February 2009, and Pakistan adding orders in 2007 and 2011, the Foreign Military Sales (FMS) F-16 RF ECM market expanded.

By the 2010s, there were only two primary competitors for FMS F-16 jammers (following Turkey’s final cancellation of the development of BAE Systems’ AN/ALQ-178(V)5+): ITT/Exelis/Harris/L3Harris’s newer AN/ALQ-211(V)4/9 AIDEWS (and now ALQ-211A(V)4/9 Advanced AIDEWS) and Raytheon’s AN/ALQ-187(V).

We forecast in 2017 that this F-16 market could potentially be good for several hundred systems over our forecast period when including retrofits, and Harris Corp. had also suggested markets for new AIDEWS systems in countries that might buy F-16s divested by other countries procuring new F-35 Joint Strike Fighters.

But after Iraq’s order in 2011 (with deliveries beginning in 2015), there was a 7-year F-16 order drought. That has now all changed, with the new F-16V Viper suddenly – in 2018 and 2019 alone – contracted for dozens of new F-16Vs, and even more planned and contracted upgrades of older F-16s to F-16V standards.

What this means is, the hundreds of future FMS F-16 ECM systems we had forecast will likely be bought – but – most system choices seem to have suddenly gone classified or at least unannounced. The most recent declared systems for new and upgraded F-16s were originally announced in 2017 – AIDEWS for Morocco and ALQ-187/ACES for Greece (with AIDEWS announced by Lockheed Martin for Indonesia in 2019).

So, what electronic warfare (EW) systems will be bought for these hundreds of new F-16Vs?

Although L3Harris’ AIDEWS has earned more recent confirmed contracts (including a follow-on order from Turkey in March 2014, a new order for Morocco in January 2017/June 2019, and a new order for Indonesia in June 2019), Raytheon’s ACES (Advanced Countermeasures Electronic System) including the AN/ALQ-187(V)2 has also sold recently – to Morocco in November 2008, Egypt and Iraq in 2010, possibly a small Iraqi follow-on order in 2013, and a large follow-on order for Greece in October 2017. Lockheed Martin also chose ACES for its Indian F-16IN bid in early 2009.

However, the fact that Morocco now seems to be choosing AIDEWS over the ALQ-187 it ordered in 2008 may indicate the market favors L3Harris’ ALQ-211. Considering the ongoing RDT&E and Procurement funding provided by the US for the related ALQ-211 SIRFC, as well as L3 Harris’ new USAF “prototype” system development award, it would not be surprising to see AIDEWS continue to advance.

But with a new generation of EW finally funded by the US military for many fighters, other new systems – a newer generation than both ACES and AIDEWS – could start winning F-16 orders and take over the fighter EW upgrade market this decade. The new systems include Raytheon’s Next Generation Jammer (NGJ) for the US Navy, BAE Systems’ EPAWSS (Eagle Passive/Active Warning and Survivability System) for USAF F-15s, and of course BAE/Northrop Grumman’s F-35 JSF AN/ASQ-239 EW Suite.

Thus, we will include the currently contracted F-16 upgrades/new sales for Singapore, Taiwan, Bahrain, Slovakia, and Bulgaria – all ongoing in mid-2020 – in our speculative Future FMS F-16 RF ECM Systems forecast, to be worth $1.6 billion over the next ten years. AIDEWS vs. ACES vs. new systems is impossible to call right now – in part because so many choices have not been announced – but the funding and production will be substantial.