Military UAS procurement spending will increase almost $12.1 billion annually in 2023 to $16.4 billion in 2032.

Teal Group's 2022/2023 market study estimates that UAS procurement spending will increase from the current worldwide level of almost $12.1 billion annually in 2023 to $16.4 billion in 2032, totaling $162.2 billion over the next ten years. Military UAS research spending would add another $72.5 billion over the decade. These numbers include Teal Group’s estimates of classified US spending in procurement and R&D.

 Country-by-Country Analysis

The Teal Group study analyzes the world military drone market on a country-by-country basis, providing unprecedented detail on the expanding global marketplace. Once limited to the world’s major armed forces, military drones are now ubiquitous. They have played a remarkable role in recent conflicts such as Ukraine, Syria, Libya and the Nagorno-Karabakh war.

Senior analyst Steve Zaloga notes that “The global military drone market remains dominated by the United States and Israel. But new players such China and Turkey are challenging the United States in its traditional markets in the Mid-East. Their drones enjoy a price advantage and are sold without Washington’s intrusive requirements.” The study also examines why traditional aerospace powers such as Europe have had such a difficult time breaking into this market.

"The Teal Group study predicts that the US will account for 81% of total military worldwide RDT&E spending on UAS technology over the next decade and nearly 48% of military procurement," said Teal Group senior analyst Steve Zaloga, an author of the study. Much of the US RDT&E is intended to develop the next generation of systems that can survive in contested airspace.

The latest edition of the sector study, World Military Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Systems, Market Profile and Forecast 2022/2023, examines the worldwide requirements for UAVs, including UAV payloads and companies, and provides ten-year forecasts by country, region, and classes of UAVs. It incorporates the latest budget data worldwide, including the fiscal 2023 US defense budget.

The 2022-2023 study also provides forecasts for a wide range of UAV payloads, including Electro-Optical/Infrared Sensors (EO/IR), Synthetic Aperture Radars (SARs), SIGINT and Electronic Attack (EA) Systems, and C4I Systems. These markets are forecast to grow in overall value from $5.5 billion in FY22 to $11.8 billion in FY31, worth $80 billion in total (combined RDT&E and Procurement). Teal Group forecasts rapid growth in all sensor markets, but especially radars – now forecast to increase from $1.4 billion in FY22 to $3.7 billion in FY31, with an 11.5% CAGR.

For most sensor types, the largest market will be for stealthy classified UCAVs (Unmanned Combat Aerial Vehicles), to be worth $8.6 billion for radars alone. The fastest growth will be for small UAVs, from low funding levels today and with few programs of record in unclassified DoD documents. Teal Group forecasts development and production of increasingly sophisticated sensors for smaller tactical and mini/nano-UAVs, with a continuing “trickle down” of large-UAV sensor capabilities to small UAVs.

This study breaks out billions of dollars of estimated classified spending and future follow-on sensor programs with annual forecasts. Dr. David L. Rockwell, Teal Group’s lead electronics analyst, states “it is important to forecast these programs as they make up an increasing share of the available market, even though they are in no public DoD documents and are not monetized in any online sources.” He notes that “speculative ‘available’ forecasts – totaling almost $44 billion for sensors through FY31 – are intended to give early warning of programs that are not yet in DoD budgets or even under public discussion – to allow Teal’s clients to plan ahead before the RFPs are out.”

The 2022-2023 study also includes UAS Company Profiles that reflect “the consolidation among technology leaders at the high-end of the market and the sharp growth of suppliers to the lower spectrum of the market where the cost-capabilities tradeoff is dominant.” said Tom Zoretich, Teal Group’s Director of Corporate Analysis. “While new players are emerging, the larger, established companies are pursuing acquisitions and unparalleled technical advances.”

The study reflects the rapid growth of interest in the UAV business by covering approximately 60 US, European, Asia-Pacific, and Israeli companies, and reveals the fundamental reshaping of the industrial environment as UAV technology proliferates worldwide.