Russian Loitering Munitions Market

Both Russia and Ukraine have been making extensive use of loitering munitions during the current war. Russia has made extensive use of FPV (First Person View) loitering munitions since 2023. These are generally based on small, cheap commercial racing drones fitted with a small warhead. Russia began using FPV kamikaze drones in small numbers in July 2022. Use of these drones ramped up in response to Ukrainian attacks with 125 sorties in July 2023, 247 in August, 553 in September, 474 in October and 625 in November 2023. Of these attacks, Russian sources claimed that 19.4% destroyed their target and 13.8 damaged the target with the remaining 67% missing or unknown. An assessment of Russian FPV drone attacks from August 2023 to March 2024 counted 3,241 attacks, 972 against armored vehicles and 2,269 against Ukrainian infantry.

Russia has also been using a variety of larger loitering munitions. The three principal types observed in Ukraine have been the Mohajer 6 MALE UAV, the Shahed-131 kamikaze drone, and the more common (and larger) Shahed-136 kamikaze drone. The best known of these are the Iranian Shahed-136 and its Russian manufactured derivative, the Geran-2. The most prominent drone in Russian service during the 2022-2023 Ukraine war has been the Iranian Shahed-136 loitering munition. The Shahed-136 is an upscaled version of the earlier Shahed-131 and was first publicly unveiled in 2021. It was developed by the Shahed Aviation Industries Research Centre (SAIRS), part of Shahed Aviation Industries, located near Isfahan. It is manufactured by the HESA Aircraft Industries in Tehran.

Under an agreement with Iran, Russia secured technical assistance to create a local factory to manufacture the Geran-2 drone. The Russian manufacturing facility is called the JSC SEZ PPT Alabuga (Joint Stock Company-Industrial Production Facility of the Alabuga Special Economic Zone). The plant is in the town of Yelabuga, Tatarstan, about 800 km east of Moscow. The first confirmed use of the Geran-2 was on 13 September 2022 during the Kharkiv counter-offensive. Although first used against army targets, its main role subsequently became bombardment of Ukrainian cities. There was heavy use of the drones in October 2022 against the port city of Odessa aimed at crippling its powerplants: 46 were launched on 6 October, 24 on 10 October 10, and 47 on 17 October. Due to their slow speed, the Shahed-136 drones have been vulnerable to a variety of air defenses. As of February 2024, Russia had launched 4,637 Shahed/Geran weapons against Ukraine of which Ukraine claimed to have shot down 3,605.

Russia has also been producing the more sophisticated Zala Lancet and related types since 2019. The Lancet was first disclosed in 2019. There are three common versions of the Lancet, the Lancet-1 with a one-kilogram warhead and 30-minute endurance, the Lancet-3 (izd. 51) with a three-kilogram warhead and 40-minute endurance, and the Lancet-3M (izd. 52) with a five-kilogram warhead. According to the Russian press, 250 Lancets were produced by July 2022. Ukrainian examination of unexploded Lancets concluded that about 80% of the drone’s sub-components are Chinese. Through September 2023, the Russians launched 662 Lancets, claiming a hit rate of about 80%. The attacks were roughly half Lancet-3 and half Lancet-3M. From August 2023 to the end of the year, 248 Lancets were used, 203 against armored targets and 45 against other targets.

In September 2023, Zala unveiled its larger Italmas loitering munition, an analog to the Shahed/ Geran-2 loitering munition.

For full analysis and detailed forecast see Teal Group’s World Missiles Briefing