F-35: How Many Will Be Built? Production Rate Forecast UPDATE

Reopening the Tap

After more than a year without deliveries as Lockheed Martin worked to get the Block 4 software to a final release standard, the JPO relented on its position that they would only accept completed jets. Beginning in July 2024, Lockheed can now go to DD 215 sign-off with F-35s that have Technical Refresh 3 but not a final version of the software. According to LM Aeronautics CEO Greg Ulmer, Lockheed has already begun to ship US aircraft with version 351 Block 4 software and will follow with updated versions of international “353” software in late August.

The plan is to deliver seven of the parked jets each month along with 13 new production aircraft, with the goal of returning to delivery direct from production within 18 months.

Big Numbers

The Government Accountability Office announced in April 2024 that the F-35 program would cost much more than previously anticipated. Their sustainment cost estimates increased 44 percent, from $1.1 trillion in 2018 to $1.58 trillion in 2023, and GAO found that the jets are less available. DoD responded that cost per tail per year and cost per flight hour continue to decrease.

The main driver behind this increase appears to be the 11-year stretch in anticipated service of the F-35, which automatically significantly increases the anticipated cost. So, there may be less to this report than meets the eye.

Block 5 is Alive?

The GAO report also includes a very different and major tidbit: The program office expects to take capabilities out of Block 4 “that cannot be supported by the current F-35 engine and thermal management system.” That implies a jet with reduced performance, a Block 5 program to restore those capabilities someday, or both. Confirming that, Lt. Gen. Michael J. Schmidt, the F-35 program executive officer, recently told Congress the Block 4 is being “re-imagined,” with some of its elements being deferred from the late 2020s to the mid-2030s.

When can the full suite of capabilities be included? The program plans to deliver F-35 aircraft equipped with the upgraded (ECU) engine in 2032. “In addition to modernizing the engine, the program is considering upgrades to subsystems, including PTMS, electrical power system, and fuel thermal management system, that may be needed to provide power and cooling to post-Block 4 capabilities. The program has not determined a specific solution for modernizing these subsystems.”

Most Recent Orders

• In May 2024, Portugal announced its interest in acquiring 27 F-35As.
• Israel ordered another 25 F-35As in June 2024.
• In late February 2024, Singapore, already holding orders for twelve F-35Bs, announced it would also order eight F-35As.
• In February 2024, the US announced the sale of 40 F-35s to Greece, possibly in response to the approval of a similar number of F-16s for Turkey. The first 20 were put under contract in July 2024, for delivery in 2028.
• In September 2023, the U.S. State Department approved the sale of 25 more F-35s to South Korea. The Korean government announced intent to acquire more past the original 40 (without specifying quantity) in December 2023.
• Also in September 2023, the Czech Republic approved acquiring 24 F-35As for delivery from 2031 to 2035.
• In August 2023, Romania announced and intent to purchase 48 F-35As. An initial order for 32 worth $6.8 billion would be followed by 12 somewhere down the road.

How Many Will Be Built?

Regarding total output, the Marines will get at least their 324 B-models since they resisted buying any F/A-18E/F/Gs, but in 2020 they started cutting back on Cs.

The Navy will probably get around 160 F-35Cs, but again they’re the least enthusiastic customer. The C will therefore be the most marginal variant, with total production in the 270 range.

The Air Force will get 1,000-1,400, depending on B-21, and on the prospect of a sixth-gen air superiority fighter (NGAD), or even of some kind of Gen 4.5 aircraft (which may now be flying in the black). With the F-15EX buy concluding at 104, subsequent fighter procurement funds will move to F-35.

Abroad, the UK RN/RAF will get at least 60 B versions. The RAF may buy the F-35 as a Tornado replacement.

The total export market is at least 1,400 aircraft, and maybe as high as 2,500. It depends, largely, on unit prices, and of course emerging new generation jets such as GCAP/Tempest or FCAS.

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