Electronics Key to Military UAV Growth

Military UAVs will continue to be one of the most dynamic growth sectors of the world aerospace industry next decade, with UAV production value forecast to increase from current worldwide UAV production of $7.3 billion in 2019 to $10.2 billion in 2029, totaling $98.9 billion in the next ten years. Military UAV research spending will add another $61 billion over the decade.

Teal’s 2019/2020 study provides forecasts for a wide range of UAV payloads, including Electro-Optical/Infrared Sensors (EO/IR), Synthetic Aperture Radars (SARs), SIGINT and EW Systems, and C4I Systems, forecast to grow in overall value from $5.5 billion in FY19 to $8.3 billion in FY28. Steady growth will occur in the “default sensor” EO/IR market, following a funding downturn in recent years as several legacy endurance UAV sensor programs ended. Teal forecasts a near-term rise from $1.6 billion in FY19 to $2.2 billion in FY22, led by funding for adding U-2 sensors to Global Hawk, by HD upgrade programs for Reapers and Gray Eagles, and by new production for classified UCAVs and mini/nano-UAVs.

This year, the study again breaks out more classified and future follow-on sensor program forecasts, to show all business opportunities. According to Dr. David L. Rockwell, Teal’s lead electronics analyst, “it is vitally important to forecast these programs, as they make up more and more of the available market, even though they are in none of the DoD documents or online sources.” He notes that, “Detailed speculative ‘Available’ forecasts – totaling more than $40 billion for payloads through FY28 – are intended to give early warning of programs that are not yet in DoD budgets or under public discussion – to allow Teal’s clients to plan ahead before the RFPs are out.” Dr. Rockwell concludes that, “This $40+ billion will make up nearly two-thirds of the UAV sensor market; we’ve put this together through my 25 years at Teal Group, and it’s just not available online.”

Along with EO/IR, comprehensive coverage of the sea change in the radio frequency (RF) market is also included, with UAV radars forecast to grow from $1.5 billion in FY19 to $2.3 billion in FY28, and SIGINT and Electronic Attack (EA) markets to grow from $1.5 billion to $2.1 billion (with a 24.5% EA CAGR from FY19 to FY21 for major UCAV systems). “The emphasis on – and funding for – different sensor types is already changing as geopolitics evolve back to A2/AD threats and near-peer opponents in Asia and Eastern Europe,” according to Teal’s study.