“La tecnología puede rastrear un vuelo, pero supongo que alguien hizo algo y no pudimos impedir el desastre”, expresó Richard Aboulafia, consultor de temas de aviación del Teal Group. “Solo mejores servicios de inteligencia y de vigilancia pueden evitarlo”.

In this day and age of constant connection, the public has been surprised to learn that radar and satellites aren’t actually all-seeing, cellphone locations aren’t always traceable and key data about the plane is only recorded, not transmitted in real time to the ground. And onboard tracking systems can be disabled manually — one theory holds that someone in the cockpit intentionally diverted the plane and disguised their actions. “Technology can track a flight, but assuming malice was involved, it wouldn’t change the outcome of this disaster. Only better human intelligence and screening can do that,” said Richard Aboulafia, an aviation consultant with the Teal Group.

Indeed, titanium supply constrictions could become a sore point for companies such as Boeing if more sanctions are applied, several analysts note, meaning at least higher prices for the element. “That is going to be a key concern,” says Richard Aboulafia, vice president for analysis at the Teal Group. The aerospace industry is one of the top customers for titanium alloy products, with newer commercial aircraft using far more than previous generations due to its favorable strength-to-weight ratio. Boeing has forecast it would spend $27 billion on Russian titanium supply, design engineering and services “over the next decades.” In July 2009, Boeing and VSMPO-Avisma, Russia’s largest titanium producer, started a 50/50 joint venture, Ural Boeing Manufacturing (UBM) in Verkhnyaya Salda.

ANA’s 70-plane purchase today tilted toward Boeing, with the U.S. company accounting for all 40 long-haul models in the deal, with a list value of about $13 billion. Toulouse, France-based Airbus Group NV (AIR), seeking to crack Boeing’s grip on Japanese airlines’ wide-body fleets, sold 30 narrow-body jets. “I wouldn’t call this a split order: Boeing won,” said Richard Aboulafia, an aerospace analyst with Teal Group, a consultant based in Fairfax, Virginia.

Richard Aboulafia, vice-president of analysis at Teal Group, calls the KAI/Lockheed T-50 Golden Eagle the “most capable” option – but also probably the most expensive to buy and operate. Lockheed declines to discuss prices, but Aboulafia estimates the T-50’s flyaway cost will be $26 million per aircraft. Currently built in South Korea and flown by that country’s air force and that of Indonesia, the T-50 was designed specifically to train fifth-generation fighter pilots, Lockheed says. “A student doesn’t need extensive training in the operating squadron to learn high-speed manoeuvring” after flying the type, it adds.

The T-50, which has been in service since the mid-2000s, can reach Mach 1.5 and pull 8g, Lockheed says. The type’s single General Electric F404 engine also has an afterburner. “If the [USAF] has the budget, and they want [pilots] to [transition] easily into an F-22 or F-35, the T-50 is the choice,” says Aboulafia. He estimates the least expensive option, at about $21 million each, is the BAE/Northrop Hawk ­advanced jet training system, which is derived from a aircraft model originally introduced in the 1970s. “If you want to put a pilot in the air and give him good cockpit training at the lowest cost, [the Hawk is] the way to do it,” says Aboulafia.