Joel Johnson, an international-affairs analyst at The Teal Group, says Iran Air "has seven or eight ancient 747s that have been quietly maintained with needed parts by a European carrier over the years, with implicit approval of the U.S."

"I would be astonished if the French don't deliver both ships," said Joel Johnson, a defense trade consultant with the Teal Group.

An official at the French Embassy in Washington declined to provide comment beyond what Hollande said on Monday.
Bloomberg reports that the construction of the second carrier, called the Sevastopol, is roughly 75 percent complete and paid for.

Russia is buying the ships from France because it's cheaper and faster than having to design one on its own. In the original deal, signed in 2011, the two countries agreed that the first two ships would be built and completed in France, with a third and fourth ship to be built in Russia.

Johnson said France could refuse to provide technical assistance to build the follow-on ships for Russia but that beyond that, France would most likely stick to its original agreement. This is partly because France, like other European countries, can't afford America's idealism when it comes to defense exports.

"There's no European country that can support a defense industry without exports," Johnson said. "It's much more painful for them to cut off exports and antagonize a customer than it is for the United States."

Therefore, compared to the United States, France has a reputation as a "highly dependable arms exporter," Johnson said. France risks hurting that image if it reneges on its Mistral contract with Russia.

“An analyst said France has an image to maintain as a reliable arms vendor. “The French have the reputation that if they sign a contract they’ll deliver,” said Joel Johnson, analyst with the Teal group. “The French will hold their nose longer than the US will.” Johnson said, however, that France’s reputation could quickly be altered if it decides against delivering the ship. “They’ll end up with a reputation like the US,” Johnson said. “If you look at Latin America, they don’t see the US as a reliable supplier. In cases like that, the French have moved in.”

Virginia-based Teal Group analyst Joel Johnson said the move could help American firms to put themselves in a position to benefit if a broader softening of sanctions is agreed. "It allows some US companies to get a foot in the door and restore relations that they have not had for over 20 years," Johnson said.

Joel Johnson, an analyst with Virginia-based Teal Group, said that U.S. officials viewed the sale of spare aircraft parts as a powerful carrot for Iran, which for decades has relied on parts obtained on the black market or copied locally.

He said the move could also help American companies to put themselves in a position to benefit if a broader softening of sanctions is agreed.

"It allows some U.S. companies to get a foot in the door and restore relations that they have not had for over 20 years," Johnson said.