US Army’s Warfighter Information Network-Tactical (WIN-T)

The US Army’s Warfighter Information Network-Tactical (WIN-T) has been and will continue to be one of the largest C4I programs in the world.

WIN-T and Increments (Legacy WIN-T)

The Warfighter Information Network-Tactical (WIN-T) has been the U.S. Army’s overarching strategy to establish a single integrating framework to create a joint expeditionary (on the move) network of networks for communications and C4I. In both wars in Iraq, in 1990-91 and 2003, U.S. forces outran their own communications networks, and today’s increasing dependence on C4ISR information has made a high-rate-of-movement mobile broadband communications network even more important.

Teal Group’s forecast is for almost $10 billion in funding for WIN-T and follow-on programs over the next ten years.

Although restructured with considerably less funding for FY09 following a massive Nunn-McCurdy breach (WIN-T programs garnered at least $3.2 billion in procurement funding alone in FY08), and with reduced RDT&E funding again in FY11 and FY12, “due to realignment to higher priority requirements” (restored in the February 2011 budget), and reduced procurement funding in FY14 as well as WIN-T Increment (Inc) 3 being de-scoped to a software-only program in February 2015, WIN-T was still planned as the U.S. Army’s future data linked network communication solution. Hundreds of millions – or billions – of dollars were still being spent each year.

Teal Group’s WIN-T forecasts have been based as much as possible on Army and DoD plans, but there have been major gaps in unclassified budget funding – such as a lack of significant future RDT&E programming. So far, WIN-T seems to have remained mostly unclassified, which is becoming something of a rarity for a major electronics program in the DoD. It has been possible that future Increments would go classified (at least the funding), or it was possible the Army had just not programmed later Inc 3 and future Increment funding and programs.

But as WIN-T has long been planned as The Big One for Army C4I for the next decade(s), major funding has been likely to continue, and this has continued in our speculative forecasts. At “only” $700-800 million per year in procurement, our forecasts could have proven conservative – compared to the $3+ billion years of the recent past.

(Legacy) WIN-T Forecasts

In May 2017, the Army’s FY18 budget requested significantly less funding in FY18 than was requested the year before. This amount – $420.5 million requested for FY18 rather than the $601.5 million requested in 2016 for FY18 (for WIN-T Inc 2 procurement) – was more typical for Inc 2 procurement, but before FY18 there had always been about $250-300 million additional procure­ment for WIN-T Inc 1 and ACUS-Mod. Teal Group suspected much funding would be added back, either to Inc 2 or to other WIN-T procurement lines.

On the other hand, in 2018 the Army was finally considering moving away from WIN-T to a more commercially based C4I network. Nonetheless, hundreds of millions of dollars of WIN-T contracts continued to be awarded....

Thus, our last year’s forecast split the difference between the typical $700-900 million total procurement and the $400-450 million budgeted annually going forward in the FY18 budget (which could also reflect more funding going classified). Our forecast thus became more speculative.

As we have forecast since 2017, even if WIN-T is replaced by a more commercially-based concept or system(s), Teal Group expected probably the same scale of funding; it would just become available to new, perhaps more commercially-oriented suppliers.

Today’s WIN-T and Future U.S. Army Ground Forces Tactical Networks Forecasts

Then, in March 2019 the U.S. Army finally laid out (and funded) its plan to replace (or at least continue upgrading with new programs) WIN-T. According to the FY20 Army procurement budget, WIN-T Increment 2 is currently fielded to sixteen BCTs and nine Divisions. From FY19-23, WIN-T Increment 2 procurement funding is being realigned into two new and separate (but related) funding lines – Situational Information Transport (SIT) (B27201) and Tactical Network Technology Mod in Service (TNT MIS) (B07110) – as part of the new Army Network Modernization Strategy.

The new Tactical Network Technology Mod in Service (TNTMIS) program will essentially replace many aspects of WIN-T – by introducing new capabilities and new technologies through engineer­ing changes to the tactical network baseline. Funding will support the Army’s Network Modern­ization Strategy Line of Effort #1, Unified Network, and Integrated Tactical Network. The purpose of TNT MIS funding is to modernize the Army’s Tactical Network (comprised of WIN-T Increment 1 and WIN-T Increment 2 and Tactical Network equipped units). The Tactical Network provides both Networking At-The-Halt and Networking On-The-Move, keeping highly mobile and dispersed forces connected to one another and to the Army’s global information network. It connects all users to each other to allow information sharing from theater down to the maneuver battalion and to select Company-level roles, to joint and multinational elements, and the Department of Defense Informa­tion Network (DoDIN). With essential voice, video and data services, at all levels of security, commanders can make decisions faster than ever before and from anywhere on the battlefield.

In March 2019, the FY20 U.S. Army procurement budget also discussed the related Situational Information Transport (SIT) program, which funds the continued fielding of WIN-T Increment 2 to active component Infantry Brigade Combat Teams and Stryker Brigade Combat Teams, to complete fielding by the end of FY21.

Thus, by late 2019 the overarching WIN-T program seemed to finally be breaking into probably more efficient commercially related programs, to hopefully fulfill the same missions with more capability, more rapid upgrades and improvements, and (possibly, but unlikely) less cost. Thus, Teal Group has switched our out-years WIN-T forecasts and funding to a Future U.S. Army Ground Forces Tactical C4INetworks line, which includes much funding and likely much more availability to new suppliers than the previous General Dynamics-led WIN-T Increments 1 and 2.

Our forecasts are speculative and include what we feel is a conservative estimate of almost $10 billion in funding over the next decade. We include funding in our WIN-T lines if (especially in the near-term) it is almost certain to go to General Dynamics, rather than toward future – Available – upgrades and systems. Much out-years Future funding will also likely go to General Dynamics, but only after competitions.