The MQ‑9 Reaper has been a central U.S. ISR and strike asset in the Iran campaign. It has suffered significant attrition, with about 11 aircraft lost, having an estimated airframe value of roughly $330 million.

Overview

The RQ-1A Predator was the US Air Force’s first medium endurance UAV. The Predator stemmed from the CIA's earlier Tier 1 Medium Endurance Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (MAE-UAV) that was deployed for surveillance missions over the former Yugoslavia in 1993-94.

The Predator was first deployed over Bosnia in the summer of 1995. The US Air Force assumed operational control of Predator on 2 September 1996. The first series production contract was awarded to General Atomics on 20 August 1997. The US Air Force retired the MQ-1 Predator force in 2018 after acquiring 320 aircraft.

A new version of the Predator was announced in 2000, the Predator-B which was first acquired by NASA for research purposes. In its hunter-killer version for the Air Force, it is designated as the MQ-9A Reaper. The Air Force had been acquiring the MQ-9A alongside the MQ-1A Predator but in 2009 decided to shift entirely to the Reaper. Procurement continued through FY22 for 430 aircraft.

The Air Force is continuing to fund extensive Ground Control System upgrades. A Multiple Aircraft Control (MAC) GCS configuration variant is being developed that will provide control of multiple aircraft and payloads. Near-term upgrades include Block 30 (new LINUX processors, high-definition monitors, and ergonomic improvements) and Block 50 upgrades that integrated human-machine interfaces, open systems architecture, and improved crew habitability. GCS Block 50 leverages the Unmanned Aerospace System (UAS) Command and Control (C2) Initiative (UCI) government-owned open system standard to enable improved capabilities for situational awareness and multi-mission management monitoring and oversight.

The US Army awarded a contract in May 2003 for three IGNAT UAVs based on the Predator to help define its UAV requirements for a divisional/corps level UAV called the Extended Range Multipurpose UAV (ERMP). A Predator derivative called MQ-1C Grey Eagle (formerly Sky Warrior) won the Army ERMP competition in 2005 against the Hunter II, a derivative of the Israeli Heron. The Army funded 306 air vehicles through FY25.

The US Marine Corps in 2018 decided to begin to acquire the MQ-9 Reaper based on experiences in the use of USAF aircraft in Afghanistan. A total of 9 were funded in 2020-2022, the FY21 budget cut the program to just 2 in FY20, but the FY23 budget brought the objective to 18 in FY22-24. In May 2022, General Atomics announced it was developing a short-take-off and landing (STOL) kit to enable the MQ-9 to take off from aircraft carriers.

The US Special Operations Command has been funding its MALET (Medium Altitude Long Endurance Tactical) program which adds mission-specific equipment to MQ-1 and MQ-9 aircraft to support SOCOM anti-terrorist operations. This includes mission payloads, weaponization and modifications to ground stations and the aircraft. SOCOM has a requirement for an Armed Overwatch capability and there have been suggestions that this could be met by a drone such as the Reaper.

In 2020, the USAF began to solicit information from industry about a possible Reaper follow-on, designated MQ-Next Generation.

Teal Group Analysis

The Predator/Reaper have undoubtedly been the most successful military drone of the past two decades and have become almost synonymous with drone warfare. The main catalyst to the Predator has been the intelligence/surveillance demands of the operations in Iraq and Afghanistan which significantly increased the procurement and operations tempo of the Predator/Reaper.

The decision to employ the Predators in a more versatile hunter-killer role considerably expanded interest in the program. The successful use of the Predator in this role over Afghanistan in 2001, Yemen in 2002, and Iraq in 2003 opened the Air Force’s eyes to the possibility of having UCAV capability today instead of a decade away. The Reaper has proven to be exceptionally well suited to the type of counter-insurgency operations. As a result, the Air Force’s acquisition plans for the Reaper continued to expand. Although the CIA use of drones has attracted considerable press attention, it is likely that most of the approximately 80 UAVs operated under CIA guidance were acquired and operated through the USAF programs under Langley's direction.

The Air Force program continued to increase in its objectives under the first Trump administration, but finally terminating new acquisition in the FY21 budget. The Air Force is now looking at platforms that are more survivable in a hostile air defense environment.

The Army has selected the Predator’s MQ-1C Grey Eagle derivative to complement its short-range RQ-7 Tactical UAV. As in the Air Force case, there has been a gradual creep upward in the procurement objective over the past few years due to extensive use in combat theaters. Procurement funding was planned to end with the FY21 budget but extended due to two Congressional plus-ups. The Marine Corps has also decided to acquire a modest number of Reapers.

Now, further acquisition of the Reaper by the US armed forces seems unlikely. Aside from an ample inventory, there is growing concern about survivability of this type of drone in all but the most benign air defense environments.

Predator and Reaper have already been exported in modest numbers, and it will not be surprising to see more exported. Reaper exports have been hampered by State Department interpretations of the Missile Technology Control Regime, leading some allies to turn to China or Turkey. In 2025, the Trump administration announced plans to reject the MTCR classification for UAVs, treating them as aircraft instead of missiles, and thereby easing the restrictions on export.