Fairfax, Virginia – July 7, 2016. Civil Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS) promise to be the most dynamic growth sector of the world aerospace industry this decade, report Teal analysts in their latest market analysis. The emergence of the commercial UAS market, growth in demand from governments around the world to better patrol borders, and continued consumer drone growth all promise to drive more than a quadrupling of the non-military market over the next decade.
Teal Group’s 2016 World Civil UAS Market Profile and Forecast estimates that non-military UAS production will soar from $2.6 billion worldwide in 2016 to $10.9 billion in 2025, a 15.4% compound annual growth rate in constant dollars. Over the next decade the market totals $65 billion.
“The commercial segment of the worldwide market will lead growth in civil UAS,” said Philip Finnegan, Teal Group's director of corporate analysis and author of the study who also has advised the FAA on its forecast for civil UAS. “Eased airspace regulations, an influx of venture capital investment, the development of a service industry and involvement of major technology companies all are creating the foundations for solid growth.” Intel Corp., Google and Facebook made acquisitions and now are developing UAS systems. Worldwide commercial is projected to grow from $387 million in 2016 to $6.5 billion in 2025, a 32.6% compound annual growth rate.
Construction will lead the commercial market. All 10 of the largest worldwide construction firms are deploying or experimenting with systems and will be able to quickly deploy fleets worldwide. The three largest construction equipment suppliers are all either distributing drones or planning to build them.
Agriculture, which will adopt UAS more slowly, will still rank second worldwide. The ability to do unmanned spraying of crops and also do imagery that can detect when and where to apply fertilizer, pesticides and water offers tremendous potential. While it grows more slowly than construction, the agricultural UAS market has the potential to continue to grow considerably beyond the forecast period.
Low-cost, high-altitude, long endurance UAS for internet promise to create an entirely new segment of the market. Airbus has already begun low rate production of solar-powered UAS, and Google and Facebook are also working on systems. The technology looks likely to be in place within several years to bring the internet to areas of the world with no service.
Other important segments, ranked in order by ten-year size, include energy, insurance and general photography such as real estate marketing. There may be niche applications for delivery UAS during the forecast period such as deliveries of humanitarian supplies to remote developing areas. Yet regulatory restrictions and the uncertain economics of delivery make it impossible to make a forecast for what could potentially be quite a large segment.
Civil government UAS will be a much smaller segment than commercial, but the appeal is growing. The European Union’s creation of a new border and coast guard in an expansion of its existing Frontex prepares the way for the use of the unmanned systems. The United Nations is seeking to expand the use of UAS in peacekeeping. Drones are catching on with public safety agencies worldwide, particularly in developing countries.
The consumer drone segment will continue to grow although the explosive increase of the recent past will slow. The continuing increase will be based on easier to use systems with new capabilities and a broader range of suppliers.
In addition to examining the relative growth rates of the market segments, the study examines investment trends by venture capital firms, and examines the strategies companies are using to address the market.
Consumer drone manufacturers are seeking to move into commercial markets by moving up the value chain. Defense companies are working to develop smaller, cheaper systems for civil government and commercial use. Start-ups are seeking to provide everything from data analysis to full service UAS packages.
The sector study splits out civil systems from Teal Group’s annual UAS Market Profile and Forecast to provide greater analysis. Now the civil and military markets will be treated in their own volumes, building on the experience gained through 12 editions of Teal Group’s UAS study.
World Civil Unmanned Aerial Systems, Market Profile and Forecast 2016, examines the worldwide requirements for UAS, providing ten-year forecasts by customer, region, and class of UAS as well as by market.
The Civil edition includes UAS market forecast spreadsheets, permitting data manipulation and offering a powerful strategic planning mechanism. It also offers searchable appendices of US and French UAS operators, including the systems being used.
The Teal Group is an aerospace and defense market analysis firm based in Fairfax, Virginia USA. It provides competitive intelligence to industry and governments worldwide.
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