Teal Group In The Media

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25
November
2014

SpaceX May Upset Firm's Monopoly in Launching Air Force Satellites

Featuring: Marco A. Caceres

SpaceX May Upset Firm's Monopoly in Launching Air Force Satellites

"This is huge," said Marco Caceres, senior analyst and director of space studies at Teal Group. "It would break up a monopoly and has the potential to save the taxpayer an awful lot of money."

Media Outlet: The Los Angeles Times Tags Falcon 9 | SpaceX | United Launch Alliance

20
November
2014

Airbus Wins Delta Order on Promise of Delivery

Featuring: Richard L. Aboulafia

Airbus Wins Delta Order on Promise of Delivery

Richard Aboulafia, an analyst at the Teal Group, said: "Delta's established a rich pattern for buying older planes. The only surprise here is that they actually went ahead with their order. They were the least enthusiastic about new-generation airplanes."

Delta declined to say how much it would pay for the planes, which have a list price of more than $13 billion. But a single bulk order effectively guarantees it will receive a steep discount.

"You get half off just for showing up," Mr. Aboulafia said.

Media Outlet: The New York Times Tags Airbus | Delta

14
November
2014

China's New Stealth Fighter Isn't Great, But It May Not Need To Be

Featuring: Richard L. Aboulafia

China's New Stealth Fighter Isn't Great, But It May Not Need To Be

"This tells us three things: One, this new export campaign is an export of an export; two, they don't have the technology themselves; and three, they're relying on Russian engines, which are no great prize," says Richard Aboulafia, VP of Analysis at the Teal Group Corporation.

He also has numerous questions about what's inside the FC-31. For example, how advanced are the jet's active electronically scanned array (AESA) radars, electronic warfare systems, and sensor fusion? "That's a big capability—fusing all the sensor inputs together into an air combat management picture for the pilot," Aboulafia says. "That's huge. It's one of the key enablers in fighter technology."

He doubts there's much of a foreign market for the FC-31, especially not in China-leery East Asia. And while the Chinese could begin serial production of their own J-31 fighter in five years, "it's not really clear what they get out of that," he says. By the end of the decade, the United States would have already rolled out hundreds of Joint Strike Fighters, which, development problems aside, will be superior planes.

Media Outlet: Popular Mechanics Tags China | Shenyang FC-31 | Stealth Fighter

05
November
2014

Orbital to Drop Soviet-Era Engines Used on Failed Rocket

Featuring: Marco A. Caceres

Orbital to Drop Soviet-Era Engines Used on Failed Rocket

This is not the first time the Russian-made AJ26 engines have caused problems, Marco Caceres, an analyst at Teal Group Corp., wrote in an Oct. 31 note. In 2007, the Sea Launch Zenit 3SL exploded because of an engine clogging and SpaceX failed to launch its Falcon 1 in March 2006 due to engine failure, he wrote.

If the engine proves to have been at fault in the latest explosion, it would be easier for Orbital to replace them rather than to attempt a repair, Caceres said in a phone interview today. "Their confidence in the engine was never high," he said.

Media Outlet: Bloomberg Tags AJ26 | Antares | Orbital Sciences

04
November
2014

Spaceflight's No Good, Very Bad Week

Featuring: Marco A. Caceres

Spaceflight's No Good, Very Bad Week

Orbital's stock dropped 15 percent after the accident, and the company will likely have to postpone its resupply launches while it figures out what went wrong. If the problem can't be quickly fixed, according to Marco Caceres, director of space studies at the defense consultancy the Teal Group, Orbital may have to delay for several years while it works on a replacement, at which point it would risk losing its NASA contract.

Media Outlet: The Verge Tags Virgin Galactic

03
November
2014

In Traveling to the Stars, Risk and Cost

Featuring: Marco A. Caceres

In Traveling to the Stars, Risk and Cost

NASA is "looking for cheaper access to space," said Marco A. Caceres, a space analyst at the Teal Group, a consulting firm in Virginia. The trouble, he said, is that reliability and price are often tied together.

"It may be unreasonable to expect to pay under a certain amount to get a reliable vehicle," Mr. Caceres said. "That comes at a cost."

Media Outlet: The New York Times Tags Antares | Orbital Sciences

31
October
2014

Virgin Galactic’s SpaceShipTwo Crashes in New Setback for Commercial Spaceflight

Featuring: Marco A. Caceres

Virgin Galactic’s SpaceShipTwo Crashes in New Setback for Commercial Spaceflight

Marco Caceres, director of space studies at the Teal Group, a consulting firm, said that "in an age where it is very expensive to fly these vehicles, the pressure is to do the minimal amount of test flying."

"So that may be something we have to take a look at," he continued. "Everyone seems to be in need of more money to conduct more flights, so the pressure is to start operational flight too soon. Maybe we are being unreasonable here."

Media Outlet: The New York Times Tags SpaceShipTwo | Virgin Galactic

29
October
2014

Cargo Rocket Explosion: A Setback, But Not Necessarily a Gamechanger for NASA

Featuring: Marco A. Caceres

Cargo Rocket Explosion: A Setback, But Not Necessarily a Gamechanger for NASA

NASA's shift to leasing services rather than owning its own rockets as part of its human-spaceflight program has been "a bold move and certainly risky in some ways – primarily because you're changing the paradigm," says Marco Caceres, senior space analyst and director of space studies for the Teal Group Corp., an aerospace-research firm based in Fairfax., Va.

The move has been driven in no small part by an agency asked to do more than either presidents or Congress were willing to pay for, especially when thinking about eventual replacements for the space shuttles.

Tighter budgets, cost overruns, and the agency's reputation for overestimating the amount of money the space shuttles would save in operating costs because they were reusable didn't help, Mr. Caceres suggests.

Media Outlet: The Christian Science Monitor Tags Antares | Launch Failure | NK-33 | Orbital ATK

29
October
2014

What Does Future Hold for Atlas V Rocket?

Featuring: Marco A. Caceres

What Does Future Hold for Atlas V Rocket?

"The writing's on the wall for Atlas V as a launcher," said Marco Caceres, senior analyst and director of space studies at Teal Group in Fairfax, Virginia., a firm specializing in aerospace and defense market research. "We cannot rely on the Russians over the long term. And from an economical standpoint, Atlas V is still too expensive the way it is to compete against emerging companies like SpaceX, and certainly to compete successfully in the commercial markets."

Media Outlet: Florida Today Tags Atlas V | United Launch Alliance

29
October
2014

A Search for Answers After Antares Rocket Explodes During Liftoff

Featuring: Marco A. Caceres

A Search for Answers After Antares Rocket Explodes During Liftoff

Marco Caceres, the director of space studies for the Teal Group, an aerospace industry analysis firm, predicted Wednesday that the launch failure would inevitably lead to "Monday morning quarterbacking" from "people within Congress and the space industry who continue to believe that NASA should continue to own, manage and operate its own launch vehicle instead of leasing launch services from private companies."

But, Caceres said in an e-mail: "The reality is that catastrophic launch failures like the one we saw yesterday have little to do with whether it's a private company managing things or NASA. NASA has had its share of horrendous failures — both in terms of launch vehicles and satellites. The idea that the government is inherently better suited for spaceflight is a myth."

Media Outlet: The Washington Post Tags Aerojet Rocketdyne | Antares | Launch Failure | NK-33 | Orbital ATK

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