Teal Group In The Media

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14
December
2014

China-US Space Relations See Small but Important Step

Featuring: Marco A. Caceres

China-US Space Relations See Small but Important Step

Marco Caceres, a space analyst with the Teal Group, called the CSM change a "win-win" for both sides.

"Every time you cooperate, every time you fulfill or submit a request, that is how you build relationships," Caceres said. "Particularly if the US is coming to see China as their next military rival in space, and they are doing an awful lot and spending a lot more money on both military and non-military space, potentially [this new agreement] could be significant because it strengthens the relationship."

Media Outlet: Defense News Tags China | Situational Awareness | Space Debris

09
December
2014

Russia, Orbital Sciences, and the American Rocket Problem

Featuring: Marco A. Caceres

Russia, Orbital Sciences, and the American Rocket Problem

"I don't see how Orbital, given all the negative publicity around Russian engines, could go with another Russian engine," says Marco Caceres, space industry analyst for aerospace and defense consultancy Teal Group. "How could the CEO explain another accident to shareholders? I think you have to go with a red, white, and blue company."

But finding that company could prove daunting. Aerojet Rocketdyne's existing production line produces powerful engines for the Delta IV and NASA's new super-heavy-lifting Space Launch System—likely too much engine for Orbital's medium-sized Antares rocket, Caceres says. 

Media Outlet: Fortune Tags Antares | NASA | Orbital Sciences | Russian engines

05
December
2014

NASA Launches Orion Capsule in First Test for Mars Mission

Featuring: Marco A. Caceres

NASA Launches Orion Capsule in First Test for Mars Mission

The agency doesn't yet have a rocket powerful enough to blast it into space that is also deemed safe enough to transport people. "It's kind of like sitting in a beautiful Cadillac, without an engine or tires," said Marco Caceres, director of space studies for Teal Group, a Fairfax, Virginia-based consultant.

Media Outlet: Bloomberg Tags Mars | NASA | Orion | SLS

04
December
2014

First Boeing Air Force Tanker 'On the Flight Line' Despite Earlier Wiring Problems

Featuring: Richard L. Aboulafia

First Boeing Air Force Tanker 'On the Flight Line' Despite Earlier Wiring Problems

Teal Group analyst Richard Aboulafia said he thinks that's doable despite the delays, given that the 1980s-era 767 is such a well-proven machine.

"There's no reason why they can't get through those problems," he said. "They have the domain knowledge of the jet and the technology."

Media Outlet: Puget Sound Business Journal Tags 767 | Boeing | KC-46

02
December
2014

GoPro Inc's Consumer Drones Could Help Its Stock Take Off

Featuring: Philip Finnegan

GoPro Inc's Consumer Drones Could Help Its Stock Take Off

Research firm Teal Group estimates that global annual spending on drones will nearly double from $6.4 billion to $11.5 billion over the next 10 years. Teal's study shows that military drones currently account for 89% of the market, while civil drones account for the remaining 11%. Yet that split is expected to be 86% military versus 14% civil over the next decade.

Media Outlet: Nasdaq Tags Drones | UAVs

02
December
2014

NASA Prepares to Test the Spaceship That Could Take Us to Mars

Featuring: Marco A. Caceres

NASA Prepares to Test the Spaceship That Could Take Us to Mars

The cost of the SLS and Orion could grow to more than $30 billion, said Marco Caceres, a senior space analyst with the Teal Group consulting firm. There is a fair amount of opposition to the asteroid mission in Congress, and a Mars landing, some 20 years away at best, remains a dream.

"To make matters worse," Caceres wrote in a recent blog, "is the painful fact that the rocket doesn't actually have a mission."

The Mars program is subject to funding constraints and a balky political system.

"This is the problem with anything that takes 20 years — people have very short attention spans," Caceres said. "And you have numerous presidential administrations and Congresses, and inevitably someone gets around to canceling it, or reducing it."

Media Outlet: The Washington Post Tags Mars | NASA | Orion | SLS

25
November
2014

SpaceX May Upset Firm's Monopoly in Launching Air Force Satellites

Featuring: Marco A. Caceres

SpaceX May Upset Firm's Monopoly in Launching Air Force Satellites

"This is huge," said Marco Caceres, senior analyst and director of space studies at Teal Group. "It would break up a monopoly and has the potential to save the taxpayer an awful lot of money."

Media Outlet: The Los Angeles Times Tags Falcon 9 | SpaceX | United Launch Alliance

20
November
2014

Airbus Wins Delta Order on Promise of Delivery

Featuring: Richard L. Aboulafia

Airbus Wins Delta Order on Promise of Delivery

Richard Aboulafia, an analyst at the Teal Group, said: "Delta's established a rich pattern for buying older planes. The only surprise here is that they actually went ahead with their order. They were the least enthusiastic about new-generation airplanes."

Delta declined to say how much it would pay for the planes, which have a list price of more than $13 billion. But a single bulk order effectively guarantees it will receive a steep discount.

"You get half off just for showing up," Mr. Aboulafia said.

Media Outlet: The New York Times Tags Airbus | Delta

14
November
2014

China's New Stealth Fighter Isn't Great, But It May Not Need To Be

Featuring: Richard L. Aboulafia

China's New Stealth Fighter Isn't Great, But It May Not Need To Be

"This tells us three things: One, this new export campaign is an export of an export; two, they don't have the technology themselves; and three, they're relying on Russian engines, which are no great prize," says Richard Aboulafia, VP of Analysis at the Teal Group Corporation.

He also has numerous questions about what's inside the FC-31. For example, how advanced are the jet's active electronically scanned array (AESA) radars, electronic warfare systems, and sensor fusion? "That's a big capability—fusing all the sensor inputs together into an air combat management picture for the pilot," Aboulafia says. "That's huge. It's one of the key enablers in fighter technology."

He doubts there's much of a foreign market for the FC-31, especially not in China-leery East Asia. And while the Chinese could begin serial production of their own J-31 fighter in five years, "it's not really clear what they get out of that," he says. By the end of the decade, the United States would have already rolled out hundreds of Joint Strike Fighters, which, development problems aside, will be superior planes.

Media Outlet: Popular Mechanics Tags China | Shenyang FC-31 | Stealth Fighter

05
November
2014

Orbital to Drop Soviet-Era Engines Used on Failed Rocket

Featuring: Marco A. Caceres

Orbital to Drop Soviet-Era Engines Used on Failed Rocket

This is not the first time the Russian-made AJ26 engines have caused problems, Marco Caceres, an analyst at Teal Group Corp., wrote in an Oct. 31 note. In 2007, the Sea Launch Zenit 3SL exploded because of an engine clogging and SpaceX failed to launch its Falcon 1 in March 2006 due to engine failure, he wrote.

If the engine proves to have been at fault in the latest explosion, it would be easier for Orbital to replace them rather than to attempt a repair, Caceres said in a phone interview today. "Their confidence in the engine was never high," he said.

Media Outlet: Bloomberg Tags AJ26 | Antares | Orbital Sciences

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