Teal Group In The Media

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31
March
2015

The Problem With the America's Russian Rocket Phase-out

Featuring: Marco A. Caceres

The Problem With the America's Russian Rocket Phase-out

Nor does the Pentagon really want a fast-tracked rocket engine, says Marco Caceres, senior analyst and director of space studies at aerospace consultancy Teal Group. "The engine is the core of your rocket, and the majority of things that go wrong in a rocket have to do with the engines," he says, "You really don't want to rush this."

Moreover, the Pentagon plan intends to spread the cost of technology development out via public-private partnerships, each of which would require roughly a dozen private sector space launches each year to remain viable. That launch demand doesn't yet exist, nor does a spike in demand appear on the horizon.

All that places SpaceX in a particularly good position to take on a lot, if not all, of the military's space launches toward the end of this decade, at least until other launch technologies can be adequately matured. Barring a change in Congress's stance on RD-180 imports or some kind of mishap that jeopardizes its certification, SpaceX might not just break ULA's military launch monopoly—it may become the monopoly.

"Overall, SpaceX is starting to look very all-American and very attractive, and ULA looks weak without its Delta IV," Caceres says. "All along ULA has had its eggs in one basket, but that only works as long as you've got a monopoly."

Media Outlet: The Washington Post Tags Atlas V | RD-180 | United Launch Alliance

20
March
2015

Mission for New Bomber: Avert Procurement Death Spiral

Featuring: Richard L. Aboulafia

Mission for New Bomber: Avert Procurement Death Spiral

Aerospace industry analyst Richard Aboulafia, of The Teal Group, has hypothesized that the bomber selection could upend the defense industrial base. If Northrop doesn't win, its days as a military airframe prime contractor could be numbered, he said. "When the bomber program gets decided, someone is going to be without a seat at the table."

Media Outlet: National Defense Tags Northrop Grumman

23
March
2015

A New Space Race Emerges as NASA Prepares to Award Contract to Ferry Supplies to Space Station

Featuring: Marco A. Caceres

A New Space Race Emerges as NASA Prepares to Award Contract to Ferry Supplies to Space Station

Marco Caceres, an analyst with the Teal Group, says there is a strong business case for ULA to retire the Delta IV, as the cost for keeping two redundant lines is significant. But he also acknowledged that there is a smart political angle at work. "If they were to cancel the Delta IV medium and all they have is the Atlas V, then there is a better argument to be made for preserving the RD-180 shipments," Caceres said. "No question about that. Have they thought about it? I'm sure people at ULA have considered it as a good strategic move."

But, Caceres said, there are many practical reasons for ULA to move away from the Delta IV, a largely redundant and expensive capacity. He notes that part of the reason Bruno was brought in to lead ULA last summer was to streamline the company in the face of SpaceX's competition. "If the Air Force wants ULA to be more competitive on price, it has to become leaner, and it can't do that with two redundant systems," Caceres said.

Media Outlet: The Washington Post Tags cargo supply | International Space Station | ISS | NASA

23
March
2015

ULA to Retire Delta IV, Push for More RD-180s

Featuring: Marco A. Caceres

ULA to Retire Delta IV, Push for More RD-180s

Marco Caceres, an analyst with the Teal Group, says there is a strong business case for ULA to retire the Delta IV, as the cost for keeping two redundant lines is significant. But he also acknowledged that there is a smart political angle at work. "If they were to cancel the Delta IV medium and all they have is the Atlas V, then there is a better argument to be made for preserving the RD-180 shipments," Caceres said. "No question about that. Have they thought about it? I'm sure people at ULA have considered it as a good strategic move."

But, Caceres said, there are many practical reasons for ULA to move away from the Delta IV, a largely redundant and expensive capacity. He notes that part of the reason Bruno was brought in to lead ULA last summer was to streamline the company in the face of SpaceX's competition. "If the Air Force wants ULA to be more competitive on price, it has to become leaner, and it can't do that with two redundant systems," Caceres said.

Media Outlet: Defense News Tags Delta IV | RD-180 | ULA

20
January
2015

Google Said to Be Close to Investing $1 Billion in Musk’s SpaceX

Featuring: Marco A. Caceres

Google Said to Be Close to Investing $1 Billion in Musk’s SpaceX

"If Google is committing money to SpaceX, they are likely to be a major investor and a real partner," said Marco Caceres, director of space studies at consultant Teal Group. "Google brings the applications for the satellites to the table, and SpaceX has the technical know-how and the launch capacity."

Media Outlet: Bloomberg Businessweek Tags Google | SpaceX

18
January
2015

Shrouded in Mystery, New Bomber Makes Waves

Featuring: Richard L. Aboulafia

Shrouded in Mystery, New Bomber Makes Waves

The half a dozen analysts and experts interviewed by Defense News for this piece all agree on one thing: the LRS-B has the chance to shape American military aerospace for the next 20 years. Whichever competitor wins will reap a windfall of development money; the loser could find itself out of the military attack airframe business entirely.

And while the program appears to be on track, Congress is waiting in the wings for any sign of cost overrun or technological problems.

"This is crunch time," said Richard Aboulafia, an analyst with the Teal Group. "It's the biggest single outstanding DoD competition by a very wide margin. That makes it important in and of itself."

Media Outlet: Defense News Tags Long Range Strike-Bomber | LRS-B

16
January
2015

Marine Corps Set to Deploy Next-Generation Unmanned Aircraft

Featuring: Philip Finnegan

Marine Corps Set to Deploy Next-Generation Unmanned Aircraft

As far as nano-UAVs, there are a growing number of products in the marketplace for the Marine Corps to choose from, said Phil Finnegan, an analyst with the Teal Group.

A Norwegian company, ProxDynamics, is offering a palm-sized miniature helicopter, the PD-100 T Black Hornet, which can fly with an electro-optical camera and thermal sensor provided by FLIR Systems Inc. for night operations. U.K. forces, and possibly U.S. Special Operations Command, have purchased some of the mini-copters, Finnegan said.

Nano-UAVs "definitely [are] a rapidly growing market. That being said, the [contract] value is nowhere near those of the larger systems," he added.

Media Outlet: National Defense Tags Drones | Marine Corps | UAVs

14
January
2015

Mitsubishi Electric Anticipating Five to Seven Satellite Orders in 2015

Featuring: Marco A. Caceres

Mitsubishi Electric Anticipating Five to Seven Satellite Orders in 2015

"I would say [all-electric is] a growing market, it has good potential, but I don't see it as a booming market in the near term," Marco Caceres, senior analyst and director of space studies at the Teal Group told Via Satellite. "[Hybrid propulsion] is a very transitional way of doing it to see if it works. In the end you may end up going to all electric if the technology improves so that it has enough of a kick to get satellites in orbit faster."

Media Outlet: Via Satellite Tags Electric Propulsion | Mitsubishi Electric | Satellites

13
January
2015

Musk Sees Seattle-Made Satellites in Race to Mars

Featuring: Marco A. Caceres

Musk Sees Seattle-Made Satellites in Race to Mars

"They're getting the reputation for being a pretty gutsy company that's willing to get things done," Marco Caceres, director of space studies with Teal Group, a Fairfax, Virginia-based consultant, said in a Jan. 10 phone interview.

Media Outlet: Bloomberg Tags Elon Musk | Mars | Satellites | SpaceX

13
January
2015

Moving Forward After the Crash of SpaceShipTwo

Featuring: Marco A. Caceres

Moving Forward After the Crash of SpaceShipTwo

Taking that as a guide, VG would need to be, at least, a $2 billion program. But can any company afford to do private space safely? Marco Caceres, a space-industry analyst at Teal Group, named one contender: SpaceX. Founder Elon Musk's company is positioned for success because it's financing its development with commercial and government clients, not celebrities. "That sort of funding won't come from a few hundred adventure seekers," Caceres says. "It's going to take big-time investment."

Media Outlet: Popular Science Tags Elon Musk | SpaceX

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